Why is Bobby Still Running?
And so, RFK Jr. won’t be part of the debate next week, having made neither the polling cutoff, nor the ballot access requirement.
He was never going to get on that stage, so this is unsurprising, but it brings up a question related to both Bobby and polling in general.
There is a high probability (like 99%) that Bobby won’t get on most ballots across the US. So where will his voters go, and how will that impact the outcome? And will anyone ever poll that?
For those of you who may not be the kind of political junkie that I am, ballot access is different in every state: it’s time consuming and expensive. For people who want to run under the banner of a Major party, it means collecting a certain number of valid signatures from members of that party (if the state has party affiliations), often from multiple counties for statewide and Federal offices, plus paying a nominal fee. This lands candidates on a primary ballot for the Democratic and Republican Parties, and the winner advances to the General for their party. 1 For Minor Parties, such as the Libertarians and the Greens, their candidates are picked at party conventions, and then they follow the same procedures as the Major Parties.
As an aside, in most states, for a party to get standing they need to clear a set bar on Election Day, in two cycles. That bar is often 15%. The American Constitution Party 2 became a recognized party in 2010 because Tom Tancredo was able to garner 30% of the vote. Different states have different parties listed on their ballots. Remember, to WIN the presidential election, you need 270 Electoral College votes. (Play my favourite game here.) So, if a party runs a candidate in some states and not others, they may not be able to garner that many votes.
For independents, or parties without standing there are other bars to be cleared. First, the signatures. In some states, although not all, they need to find people who have not signed for other candidates. For presidential elections, often a minimum number of signatories from a certain number of counties is required. Here in Pennsylvania, for example, 5,000 signatures are required for Senate, Governor and President. This means paying canvassers to go out and find potential signers. In NY, Bobby’s team paid canvassers $90/hour for a cost of over $1,000,000. Not making this up. Overall, the campaign is burning through cash, spending almost $3 million for ballot access alone in May. They do not have, and will not have, (unless Nicole Shanahan puts it up herself) enough money to get on most of the U.S. ballots, JUST in terms of gathering legitimate signatures.
And then there are the filing fees. They can be minor (a few hundred dollars), and sometimes are equal to 1 – 4% of the annual salary of the position, again, differs by state and position sought.
The final cost is if the signatures are challenged, the candidate can end up in court, and we all know what lawyers cost. For the RFK campaign, they are filing as close to closing dates as possible to preclude there being enough time for challenges. We’ll see how that works out for them.
So: where will his supporters go if (a) he is not a candidate on their ballot or (b) if they realize he’s not on enough states’ ballots to win? And also: will pollsters ever poll this?
My guess is that some of these folks will write him in. Others will just leave that line blank. And some might well decide to skip the election entirely. While general pollsters won’t poll, I suspect that the campaigns will, and that information will help on the margins.
Bottom line: while pundits have said that Bobby could be a spoiler, I think he’ll end up on the 9 ballots he’s garnered access to, and potentially 5 - 10 more, but it won’t be enough to make a difference. For example, he’s on the California ballot, and their 54 Electoral College votes are going for President Biden. Same for Texas and Utah - Bobby’s on the ballot and Convicted Felon Trump wins their Electoral College votes. Again - play my favourite game and see for yourself.
Substack doesn’t seem to have a way to see previous posts, so if you are interested in my earlier thoughts on polling, here are the links:
This is different in states like California which have jungle primaries, wherein the top voters, regardless of party, advance to the general. In some states that require a majority in lieu of a plurality, there are run-offs. Sometimes there are ranked choices.
These people are completely nuts. Their party platform has been modified in the last 20 years, they used to recommend hanging for certain infractions. Not joking. I read the party platforms of every party, every 4 years, no matter how painful some of them are.