Have you ever read “The Mandibles-a Family”? It was written before Trump 1.0 but describes a future starting in 2029 when an American President declares a “reset” on debt and defaults on Treasuries. Triggering a cancellation of the US $ as the world reserve currency and the economic doom that flows from that decision. Runaway inflation… sure, but that’s hardly the worst of it. Economic isolation-no assets are safe. A weakening dollar and a flight from US Treasuries is about as red a flag as you could find.
Who ever thought Government Bonds would be a bad idea?!? This whole thing simply boggles the mind. Another thing that boggles the mind is almost $900 BILLION paid in INTEREST in 2024! Thank you, fiscal conservative Republicans!
I don't think China is going to blink, this time. Diaper Don is way over his head this time around and totally lacks the bargaining chips - or skill - to accomplish anything. They are just not going to be bullied by a demented old man who shits his pants.
In the meantime, China is moving in where USAID has moved out, exerting even more influence throughout the world. The Felonious Fuckwad has overplayed his hand.
As I'm sure you know, the largest increases to the debt ALWAYS happened under Rethuglican administrations, and the last time the Evil Menace was in power, he upped the national debt BY A THIRD!
As for China -- not only won't they blink, but Dementia Don is the greatest thing that could have happened to them. Not only are they moving in where USAID moved out, but if you look at their reach throughout Africa for a variety of functions, including building infrastructure, funding start-ups, training and some military support -- they are dominant and no one will be able to catch up. In addition, it pays to remember that Africa is much larger than it appears on the Mercator maps, and is projected to have more growth over the next 50 years than any other continent.
I'm really concerned that the yuan becomes THE international currency. Not only because it would replace the dollar, but because China has a long history of currency manipulation to their own ends. But on the other hand, if Shitler was going to give the United States away, I prefer the Chinese to the Russians. I've had long conversations with a couple people about how we'd fare under the Chinese -- call me over the weekend if you want to hear pure snark!
What a downer even if it is all so true and we are all at risk of even more than a mere recession:
a national economy dive that will last for generations. Your usual Friday morning satire feels much better and maybe some semblance of sanity will cause some of der Fuehrer's minions to tell him the truth instead of publicly praising him for all the damage he is prone to cause everyone, including them.
I wanted people to understand that bond sell-off is very different. And yeah - snark on a Friday is something I look forward to all week as I collect tidbits and memes!
The actions of China, Japan, Canada, the EU and the hedge fund managers were loud enough to cause him to cease the tariffs 13 hours in -- they (and everyone) needs stability, which his dementia and complete lack of understanding on the "China Shock" of the last 25 years is leading to this coming disaster.
The market (equities) doesn't matter. The grifters can do some manipulation and it doesn't affect any fundamentals, although it certainly grifts on certain stocks, and CAN impact the trajectory of the overall equities market.
HOWEVER -- the sell-off of treasury bonds by China, Japan, Canada, the EU, and the hedge fund managers who use US bonds as a safe harbour during equity fluctuation -- that is NOT a joke, and is completely out of the hands of the fascist regime - It's the one thing that can lead to a worldwide meltdown because if the dollar isn't THE currency, everything changes. And it would end very poorly for us.
Have you ever read “The Mandibles-a Family”? It was written before Trump 1.0 but describes a future starting in 2029 when an American President declares a “reset” on debt and defaults on Treasuries. Triggering a cancellation of the US $ as the world reserve currency and the economic doom that flows from that decision. Runaway inflation… sure, but that’s hardly the worst of it. Economic isolation-no assets are safe. A weakening dollar and a flight from US Treasuries is about as red a flag as you could find.
I never read it, but I believe we're living it. Sigh.
Who ever thought Government Bonds would be a bad idea?!? This whole thing simply boggles the mind. Another thing that boggles the mind is almost $900 BILLION paid in INTEREST in 2024! Thank you, fiscal conservative Republicans!
I don't think China is going to blink, this time. Diaper Don is way over his head this time around and totally lacks the bargaining chips - or skill - to accomplish anything. They are just not going to be bullied by a demented old man who shits his pants.
In the meantime, China is moving in where USAID has moved out, exerting even more influence throughout the world. The Felonious Fuckwad has overplayed his hand.
As I'm sure you know, the largest increases to the debt ALWAYS happened under Rethuglican administrations, and the last time the Evil Menace was in power, he upped the national debt BY A THIRD!
As for China -- not only won't they blink, but Dementia Don is the greatest thing that could have happened to them. Not only are they moving in where USAID moved out, but if you look at their reach throughout Africa for a variety of functions, including building infrastructure, funding start-ups, training and some military support -- they are dominant and no one will be able to catch up. In addition, it pays to remember that Africa is much larger than it appears on the Mercator maps, and is projected to have more growth over the next 50 years than any other continent.
I'm really concerned that the yuan becomes THE international currency. Not only because it would replace the dollar, but because China has a long history of currency manipulation to their own ends. But on the other hand, if Shitler was going to give the United States away, I prefer the Chinese to the Russians. I've had long conversations with a couple people about how we'd fare under the Chinese -- call me over the weekend if you want to hear pure snark!
Fantastic summary. The bond market is many times larger than the stock/equity market.
Thanks, brother. That means a lot coming from you, since you REALLY understand this stuff. I just try to distill it into "regular people" level.
What a downer even if it is all so true and we are all at risk of even more than a mere recession:
a national economy dive that will last for generations. Your usual Friday morning satire feels much better and maybe some semblance of sanity will cause some of der Fuehrer's minions to tell him the truth instead of publicly praising him for all the damage he is prone to cause everyone, including them.
I wanted people to understand that bond sell-off is very different. And yeah - snark on a Friday is something I look forward to all week as I collect tidbits and memes!
The actions of China, Japan, Canada, the EU and the hedge fund managers were loud enough to cause him to cease the tariffs 13 hours in -- they (and everyone) needs stability, which his dementia and complete lack of understanding on the "China Shock" of the last 25 years is leading to this coming disaster.
What about it being performance art to tank market & make $$$$$?
The market (equities) doesn't matter. The grifters can do some manipulation and it doesn't affect any fundamentals, although it certainly grifts on certain stocks, and CAN impact the trajectory of the overall equities market.
HOWEVER -- the sell-off of treasury bonds by China, Japan, Canada, the EU, and the hedge fund managers who use US bonds as a safe harbour during equity fluctuation -- that is NOT a joke, and is completely out of the hands of the fascist regime - It's the one thing that can lead to a worldwide meltdown because if the dollar isn't THE currency, everything changes. And it would end very poorly for us.