Poll Closing Times

...and what I'll be watching

Courtesy of Reddit. And yes, you should know what all the states are without needing to see the names marked.

Notice that some states have multiple closing times.

Today’s the day, boys and girls. Vote if you’ve been waiting to vote on Election Day, and then wear swag and talk to every potential voter you can find. Go out and look for people who might still need help! I’m personally planning to hit the Costco around 4 pm to make sure all those people have already voted, or to make sure they get to the polls by closing time.

This is an internal memo from the Harris campaign on when they expect to know actual results.¹

What I’ll be watching for tonight is “how things are going”. I concur with the memo above, and remember, we don’t know anything until we know for sure. No matter how many times the Orange Menace gets on TV and claims victory.

For the remainder of this post — ALL TIMES EASTERN. Adjust accordingly!

I plan to settle in by 6 pm and start watching (and posting over on Facebook). One thing of note: unless there’s a rout, we won’t know the make-up of the House for a while. That’s because there are 6 contested seats in California, and in 2022, we didn’t know who won all their Congressional races until 2 December. Fingers crossed for a rout.

Overall, you want to watch for trends, and differences from 2020. Steve Kornacki on MSNBC does a good job of putting up county-by-county numbers with the differences between this year and the prior cycle. My guess is that very few of you (if any) actually keep track on a county-by-county basis. So if you don’t have a personal cheat sheet, stick with Steve.

At 6 pm, I’ll be watching the gubernatorial race in Indiana. I think we won’t win, but how close we come will be informative. If we win, it will be the start of a great night.

At 7 pm, it’s Georgia and part of Florida. Watch as the numbers come in from the area around Atlanta, and whether there is Democratic expansion in the area. Also look into how the margins are cut in the more rural parts of the state. Rumor says that while Georgia numbers might not come in precisely at 8, when they do start coming in, it will be fast and furious, potentially except Cobb County which has (because the courts said so) to accept mail in ballots until the 8th, because they didn’t send them out. In Florida, I’ll be watching to see how large turnout is, and how the abortion initiative is going. Florida may be very surprising. As a disgusting aside, in 2016, more people wrote in “Mickey Mouse” on the presidential line than the difference between the Orange Menace and Secretary Clinton.

I don’t plan on anything from the other 7 pm states, except, and this is a general rule of thumb, if you know what the split was in 2020 and it’s better for us now in solid red states, that means we’ll do even better than the non-Ann Selzer polls anticipate. Also good is if we maintain our margins in solid blue states.

And then it’s 7:30. Rumor has it that North Carolina will be fast with returns. Keep an eye on the suburbs around Charlotte and Raleigh (Research Triangle Park). Also look at the percentage of votes coming in from the western part of the state compared to 2020, due to any lingering impacts from Helene, although the state says they were able to stand up everything they needed to for all the voters.

And then there’s Ohio. Check the split between the presidential and senate races.

At 8 pm, attention turns to Pennsylvania, Michigan and Texas. In Pennsylvania, I’ll be watching Philadelphia. The city tends to have much higher rates of Election Day votes than other places in the state. REMEMBER that a large percentage of votes across the state came in via mail-in ballots, and therefore, we won’t know the total state count for some time, unless there’s a rout. In Michigan, all eyes will be on Dearborn.

Texas? It seems highly improbable that Harris will win, but keep an eye on Allred’s numbers. However, if Ann Selzer is correct, and if what I’m hearing about the Puerto Rican vote is true, then both Texas, and Florida (part of the state closes at 8 not 7) may actually be in play. WHICH WOULD BE AWESOME!

As an aside, I’ll be looking at the split in Kansas. In 2020, Don the Con won with 56% of the vote, with a turnout of 56%. Meanwhile, the abortion ballot initiative won with 59% of the vote with only 49% turnout. While it’s unlikely that Harris pulls off a win in Kansas, if she pulls 43% or more, that bodes well for the swing states.

I don’t anticipate any other surprises for the rest of the 8 pm state closures.

For some reason, Arkansas closes at 8:30 pm, the only state that does. That will be a good time to walk the dogs, and go outside and scream. (Joy or sadness, doesn’t matter, screaming is good.)

At 9 pm, it’s Arizona. Rumor has it that their numbers will come quickly, but I don’t buy it. Then, onto Wisconsin, which, like Pennsylvania doesn’t allow for pre-canvassing. Watch the NY Congressional races - there are 6 I’m following, and I’ve got a good feeling. Also at 9, it will be time to start watching Omaha. Remember, they have their own, separate EC vote.

At 10 pm, if you live on the East Coast, it’s time to check your local data from the states for statewide races, state assembly/senate, etc. Also there are some hyperlocal ballot initiatives. Normally that data is available from the state, as well as individual counties. Depending on where you live, the local TV stations should have some results on their 10 pm news shows, or definitely by the 11 pm shows.

Early returns from Nevada at this hour, and we won’t know anything for a while.

Later on, we’ll see additional information from all the states, plus likely expected results from the remainder of the states. Of note, while we’ll know almost immediately that Vice President carried California, we won’t know the House numbers. And finally - the Alaska House race will be a nail-biter.

So that’s my plan. See you on Facebook.

1. It was part of an email to some canvassers asking for “the final push”.