How to Use Poll Crosstabs to Help You Get Voters!

This post may not interest you. But if you want to understand more about polling, and how to use it when targeting voters, read on.

A lot of people don’t “believe” polls. They’re pretty convinced that pollsters are just making stuff up. As I wrote previously (Part 1, Part 2, Part 3) there are reasons to discount things in polls, but there are trendlines that are helpful, and you can find information in the crosstabs that can help you target your voters, and at a macro level, help campaigns spend their money wisely.

I picked the cross tabs from this snap poll to discuss. The numbers in circles and arrows direct to the numbered points below the graphic. And completely off the topic, if you know the song lyric “circles and arrows and a paragraph on the back of each one”, you are my people.

1.   “N” is the number of people who answered the poll, and “MoE” is the calculated margin of error. A poll doesn’t “count” unless it’s over 800 respondents. And an MoE at 3.1 (if accurate, and this one likely is) is terrific.

2.      Unweighted v Weighted: The unweighted percentages are the actual response rates, and the weighting is applied by the pollster to more accurately align with the electorate. “Weighting” is something that can truly screw up a poll – for this pollster, they have done a decent job of weighting, and near the end of this post, I have a “For Political Junkies” section if you want to understand how the poll was conducted, including their weighting logic.

3.      These are the topline numbers, and based on the MoE, it’s a tied race. And we NEVER care about the topline numbers of published polls EXCEPT as they exist within a trendline. This is a snap poll, and therefore we especially don’t care.

4.      The Regional numbers are a good snapshot which can help a campaign know which areas to target. Interestingly, the suburban and rural data is almost identical. Part of this is related to the weighting, or else there would be a larger gap (pro-MAGA) in rural areas. But the weighting used indicates that there will be fewer rural voters than suburban or urban voters (as a percentage of population) likely due to prior voting history. This presents an opportunity for those living in purple states – if you go further out into rural areas, you may well be able to make progress.

5.      Age: Once again, the weighting logic changes everything. In this case, ages were weighted so that a far higher percentage of those aged 65 and older are used (up from 7% of respondents, to 31% of weighted respondents.) That change is important because we know from historical records that people 65 and older vote at far higher rates than other age ranges. That may turn out slightly differently this year because of the push for new younger voters, and the huge number of new (young) voter registrations last week. But if you’re looking at the polling data, and you see that 31% of the electorate will be age 65 or older, that’s a great opportunity to ensure that these folks vote. Things YOU can do for older voters:

• Make sure all of your older neighbors, friends and family either have arranged for mail in ballots, or make sure they have a ride to the ballot.

• When mail ballots go out, check with your older neighbors, friends and family to see if they need help. (Some of those ballots are hard on older eyes!)

• Go to local active adult communities, assisted living facilities and nursing homes and run a voter registration drive. Some people may have moved and not yet updated their voter registration. Arrange for mail in ballots and help as above. If there are a group of people who need to get to the polls, rent a van.

• Don’t forget Senior Centers. Show up in the morning with donuts (they’ll have coffee) and a stack of mail in ballot applications (or your phone app), do your work, and you’ll have some lively conversation. You might need to register A voter, but it’s unlikely unless someone is new to the area.¹

6.      Gender: Of note, their weighting is excellent. What YOU can do is reach out to all the women you know, and answer any questions they may have, make sure they’re registered and planning on voting and while this will sound sexist – this election will be won, in large part, by WOMEN. Honest.

7.      Party Affiliation: This snap poll indicates that there is an opportunity with independent voters. However, in real life, the “movable” independent voters is much lower. Multiple data has shown that most people who identify as “Independent” actually have a high probability of voting with one of the two major parties. But the indication here is that there are both Democrats who can be reached, as well as others. When pollsters say “Independent”, that’s actually a misnomer. In some states, no one registers by party, and at the other end of the spectrum “Independent” means any registration that is NOT Democratic, Republican, Libertarian, Green, or other parties listed on state ballots. In Pennsylvania, for example, there are 562 “parties” that fall under the heading of “Independent”. You only think I make this stuff up.

8.      Ethnicity: These crosstabs may present an opportunity depending on the type of neighborhood in which you live. For example, my neighborhood is a completely mixed neighborhood of ethnicities (more than White, Black and Hispanic). While other ethnicities are not included in this poll, I can extrapolate (and I know from other data) that, overall, White people are the problem. So I would target those people in my neighborhood first because I have the highest probability of changing a mind or several. Don’t get me wrong – I’m a Block Captain and I talk to ALL my voters, but if I have time, I will actually go talk to some of my White Rethuglican neighbors. Your mileage may vary.

9.      Income: This is useful information for campaigns. Not so much for those of us who approach voters one by one, because it’s unlikely that you know how much money someone earns, nor what their net worth may be. However, you can correlate this with…

10.  Education: While there is not a 1:1 relationship between income and education, IN GENERAL, more education leads to higher income levels. There are a lot of very wealthy people who are high school graduates or college dropouts. Some rich college dropouts include Bill Gates, Steve Jobs (when he was alive), Larry Ellison, Michael Dell, Ralph Lauren, Ted Turner and Oprah Winfrey (just to name a few.) The point is that the higher the educational level and income level of a voter, the higher the probability that they will vote Democratic. But you can run up those numbers. For example, if you are a college graduate (or have a post-graduate degree) contact your classmates wherever they are. Make sure they’re voting EVEN IN RED STATES and see if you can get them to help you get more voters.

Now you have a better idea of what you can do with crosstab data. It can help you target to whom you should speak.

For Political Junkies:

I picked this particular poll because of their added data:

For further details see our polling methodology, AAPOR Transparency Initiative disclosures, 538 pollster rating disclosures, and accuracy analysis.

Read it over if you want to do a deep dive into weightings, plus their disclosures.

1. For several years about 25 years ago, I taught “Introduction to Computers” at a local Senior Center. The people were GREAT - and I used to join them sometimes for morning donut hour, and casino trips (these people REALLY knew how to party on the bus.) In 2000, we had 100% voter participation because, as you know, I cannot help myself. There’s a Senior Center near you, and you can do this, too.