China vs. the US

While there are no winners in a trade war, it’s possible that one side can end up in a better place than the other, depending on which markers one uses. With the Orange Menace’s current war, it’s less about “winning” and more about “surviving”.

So let’s take the temperature:

When I look at the situation, my conclusion is “we’re screwed”. If you want, you can stop reading now, that’s my bottom line. But read on if you want to know why I feel this way.

My first clue about why the Chinese will do better than we will regards the wallet I recently bought. For the years I was under cancer treatment, I didn’t get out much, mostly to medical appointments, and you bring as little as possible to those visits. But now I get out more (yay!) and bought a purse. I bought it on sale, and it’s definitely not one of those expensive pocketbooks, especially since I eschew leather. So, the purse had a matching wallet, which was $67.50¹, a price I considered outrageous, especially since I already owned a wallet. But through the judicious use of sale-chasing and a coupon, I secured the new wallet for $15.70.

Like most Americans, I love a bargain, and will work to get something I want (not need) at a reasonable price. We have all gotten used to cheap imported goods (my purse and wallet were made in Indonesia). There’s a good chance that we, consumers, who currently make up about 2/3 of spending, will pull back as prices go up. Especially since the price of things we need will also rise, and thus take a bigger chunk out of our monthly budgets. This will help lead us directly into stagflation, which I wrote about previously. I don’t see that weakness in China.

Hold that thought.

Another reason that I think the Chinese will do better is that they are willing to do things for “the homeland” that we are not. As a country, we USED to be that way, but no longer. So, for example, during WW2, we endured rationing “for the war effort”, we grew victory gardens and bought war bonds. The Chinese are still willing to endure for the good of the country.

Moreover, they have a plan, we don’t. China was hit with tariffs during Shitler’s first term, and yes, they hit back. But more importantly, instead of using a sledgehammer, they looked at what could hurt us worse. And then Xi and his people held onto that information. The targets they are hitting now include not just huge tariffs on coal, liquified natural gas, poultry, wheat, pork, and soybeans, but also export controls. This includes suspension of exporting to the US “critical minerals” that cannot be procured in large quantities elsewhere. Plus, import suspensions on certain American companies. Full details and timeline here.

As an aside on those minerals - unlike a wallet, and if worse came to worst, we could all use a rubber band to tie together our driver’s license, credit cards and some bills, minerals are critical for things we NEED - like tech products, EVs, aircraft and heavy equipment, especially military, just to name a few things that require semiconductors and batteries.

But the biggest reason I believe the Chinese will do much better has to do with DEI. Stick with me…The reason for DEI is to give all people equal access to education, jobs, and all rights afforded white Christian guys. The major benefit of this is that it leads to meritocracy - for example, the most qualified person should get the job. That leads directly to better planning and implementation, along with better outcomes.

In doing away with DEI, the Executive Branch is filled with people who are unqualified for the jobs to which they were appointed. This means they don’t plan, can’t properly implement, and will end up with worse outcomes².

So let’s take a look at just two of the impending disasters. Have you ever wondered WHY VonShitzenpants wants to bring manufacturing back to the US? In his mind, these are masculine jobs: working with one’s hands, getting dirty, doing jobs that women can’t/won’t do because they are only capable of “screen jobs”. I’ve written before about why manufacturing is NOT coming back, but let’s pretend I’m wrong. Let’s pretend that in 6 months all of a sudden, there are a million new manufacturing jobs. (There is as good a chance of that happening as Wegman’s Frosted Chocolate Brownies turning out to be healthy.) Those men? They don’t want those jobs, won’t apply for those there are, and won’t work them. Source.

And second is the ships. A case where the imbeciles did NOT think things through. How do most goods get from one continent to another? Container ships. Jamieson Greer, the US Trade Representative, has filed notice in the Federal Register, to basically charge Chinese ships that want to dock at US ports and offload goods.

Sure, landing fees, docking fees — all of this is normal.

BUT

The amount of these charges are astronomical, and will purportedly rise over time. Luckily, Jamieson has backtracked on the $1.5 million cost per ship he’d talked about in February. But still, part of the original proposal is a requirement that within 7 years 15% of U.S. exports must travel on a ship that's made in America and crewed by Americans. They haven’t walked that back yet. And there’s a bill to match, leading to 100% American ships.

How long does it take to build a container ship? Varies depending on the size of the ship, but assuming you have a ship-building facility, and can get all of the materials you need, figure 2 - 3 years. Info.

How many ships does China have? Tons. What percentage of all the ships in the world does China build? Slightly more than half. How many container ships are flagged and crewed by the US? I’ve looked and the range is from 0 - 23. (Google, you’ll find lots of information in that range, and nothing above it.) What percentage of ships does the US build? One tenth of one percent.

As an aside, it’s not just container ships, but all sorts of other ships, including military ones. Here’s the quote:

The combined tonnage of those ships made in China that one year [2024]exceeded the total made in all American yards since 1945. Source.

China has been building out not just its shipbuilding capabilities (facilities, materials, trained people) but also has the personnel to man the ships. Ask yourself - outside of the military, how many people do you personally know who can work on a freighter, frigate, container ship, or anything larger than a sailboat.

Notice the difference: China PLANNED, China IMPLEMENTED, has A GOOD OUTCOME. On the other hand, we have a blithering idiot talking out of multiple sides of his mouth, differing with his advisors, having NO PLAN, NO MEANS TO IMPLEMENT, and face it, it’s not going to work well.

While all of these things indicate that China will do far better than we will, we haven’t yet considered the biggest asset they have. Which one? They own a huge amount of US Treasury bonds. No one seems to know for sure exactly how much, since some of it is owned through Belgium and Luxembourg, but here’s one analysis.

Why do we care? Pretend you’re an 18 year old high school kid in a well-off family. You live in a nice house. You have your own car. Your parents have told you that they’ll be able to pay to put you through the college of your choice. You have nice clothes and food to eat. Life is good. What do YOU actually own? Nothing. Your parents can pull the plug at any time. Now you understand what the Chinese can do to the US if they wanted to: sell all the debt that funds a lot of what the government does. Yes, it’s an inexact analogy - but the idea is that we think we’ve got a financial system, but it’s not as solid as we think.

Bottom line: the Orange Menace should NEVER have taken on China. Anecdotally, I’ve read that Xi will not meet with the Convicted Felon because of how Zelenskyy was treated, and he will never agree to be in a position where he could be insulted publicly. China has offered back channel negotiations, but the Idiot Cheeto has said “Only he” can partake in the negotiations.

I’d say that this was a stalemate, except China is playing 3-D chess, and our morons are playing tiddlywinks.

1. More than I paid for the purse, also bought on sale with a coupon.

2. I am NOT saying that all white men are incapable. There are many capable white guys in every field. But the implementation of the fascist regime’s non-DEI hiring plan precludes not just women, minorities, etc., but also all white guys who can think things through. You know I’m right here.