While I have been a supporter of keeping President Biden our nominee, and I kept hoping the chattering class would just shut the be quiet, several things have happened in the last few days that have changed the calculus.
Remember that Red Wave that was going to swamp us in 2022? Not only did that not transpire, it was one of the most pathetic showings ever by the political party out of power in a midterm election.
It turned out to be nothing but a red, muddy puddle that ultimately resulted in the drowning of the Republican Speaker, the mealy-mouthed Kevin McCarthy.
This would be laughable, except every major political poll had it wrong — the same polls that are telling us the race in November will be close.
It won’t be, but the assumption it will is very, very dangerous in its own right.
Look at the polls in France before the election. I am sick about your conclusion. The messaging should be how great he has been. People are going to vote against Trump. Pulling Biden off for all the wrong reasons is despicable.
I'm sick about it, too. I never wanted this -- and I detest what the chattering did to cause this to happen. The polls in France are a very different animal - AFTER the right won in the EU elections, and they had the first round, the different left and center-left groups got together to decreases from 3 to 2 the number of candidates to avoid vote-splitting between candidates, and did a great job -- albeit not enough to win outright, but I believe they'll form a unity government with Macron, and the right will be stymied. (Marine LePen should go swim in the Seine right after a rainstorm.)
The messaging about what HAS been done hasn't resonated with the groups of young people, and infrequent voters. In focus groups, the response is generally along the lines of "I had no idea about the Inflation Reduction Act -- how come I still can't afford my rent and groceries?"
There is no doubt that Biden will go down in history as accomplishing the most legislatively since FDR's alphabet soup. But the question is how to get people to understand WHAT Trump and his minions will do. They won't read the GOP platform, much less Project 2025. Nor do they understand what dismantling the government will mean -- not to mention individual rights.
Tina, I don't have a good answer. And I'm not convinced that anyone will do better than Biden - but it doesn't look like he can win. Explain to me: how he can win if he loses blue states?
OK, look at England’s Election also. Biden has done a fantastic job. We don’t need to look like a complete cluster fuck of a party by throwing him out with the bathwater. We need to get the word out by about project 2025. More people need to pass out flyers about it, which my friends and I spent three hours doing yesterday and will be doing multiple times a week. This is how we should be focusing on the election.
My heart is with you. I'm currently fielding block captains throughout Chesco to build relationships with on the fence voters. AND YEA ON THE FLYERS!!! Please email me a copy, if it's okay, and I'll make sure they get passed around here. And while I personally hope he survives, it's looking less and less likely.
Whitmer gets mentioned a lot, but still I am surprised that these four rose to the top. ISSUES: I've been disappointed in Shapiro on some issues, primarily his support for school vouchers and lack of support for child care. Seems like he'd be a pro-business Dem but strong on reproductive rights. And he's only in his second year as Governor here. I don't know enough about he other three on issues. However, I'd be satisfied to vote for any of them at this point. I was pretty horrified watching the debate, and also have been furious with the NYT's unethical, one-sided push against Biden, enough to almost drop my sub yesterday (30 years). But when I heard he had Covid, I shifted to hoping this would be his easy out.
NONE of them are a "good" choice. Although all of them (and others) are decent choices in the next open cycle. They rose because they are removed from the administration. People you'd prefer, like Newsom and Buttigieg have national profiles, and people have opinions. These 4 are more under the radar, although they have made news for: being an astronaut married to an ex-Congresswoman terribly wounded by a gunman, first black governor of Maryland (you'd like him on schools) also 2 years in, the governor who re-built I-95 in record time (and live-streamed the reconstruction), head-to-head against TFG AND her would-be assassins are all in jail. Their individual issue positions don't matter - they are all young or young-ish, they support the party platform. Remember -- how one legislates or runs a state is different than being President.
I agree with your assessment of Harris. It has to be her. But I'm thinking Andy Beshear over Josh Shapiro. Josh has only been governor for 2 years, and while I adore him, Beshear has more years in as governor, is more moderate, is from a red state, and above all, I greatly fear the sheer amount of antisemitism that is around.
This was coming, I would even say it was inevitable. I prefer a governor - can't be attack about lack of experience. Gov. Whitmer would be my top choice.
Not really. Absent her withdrawal, the Veep is the practical choice and she could sell the product of the President's labors a lot better than he did or can. At minimum, she could scream to the media and the talking heads: that there is a statute on the books commanding asylum rules and procedures; and that Title 42 limiting the application of that statute during the Covid lockdown that Trump relied on expired; and then Former Guy Trump managed to convince the GOP House to reject remedial legislation in order to keep immigration in the forefront of the campaign.
She is a great prosecutor and would debate well against Trump -- although the campaign has said they won't commit to her debate with JD. Plus, she can keep the campaign money. It worries me that she doesn't poll as well as the other four.
Senator Mark Kelly would be a good candidate. Former astronaut, US Navy Captain, already have support in Arizona and would be tougher on gun control due to wife’s incident.
And this from https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/?tab=rm&ogbl#inbox/FMfcgzQVxbrSrqmcrSnjNFDShfLvDBrL:
Remember that Red Wave that was going to swamp us in 2022? Not only did that not transpire, it was one of the most pathetic showings ever by the political party out of power in a midterm election.
It turned out to be nothing but a red, muddy puddle that ultimately resulted in the drowning of the Republican Speaker, the mealy-mouthed Kevin McCarthy.
This would be laughable, except every major political poll had it wrong — the same polls that are telling us the race in November will be close.
It won’t be, but the assumption it will is very, very dangerous in its own right.
The link won't open for me -- but I agree that polling is normally wrong. And what I push are the ISSUES AND POLICIES....
Look at the polls in France before the election. I am sick about your conclusion. The messaging should be how great he has been. People are going to vote against Trump. Pulling Biden off for all the wrong reasons is despicable.
I'm sick about it, too. I never wanted this -- and I detest what the chattering did to cause this to happen. The polls in France are a very different animal - AFTER the right won in the EU elections, and they had the first round, the different left and center-left groups got together to decreases from 3 to 2 the number of candidates to avoid vote-splitting between candidates, and did a great job -- albeit not enough to win outright, but I believe they'll form a unity government with Macron, and the right will be stymied. (Marine LePen should go swim in the Seine right after a rainstorm.)
The messaging about what HAS been done hasn't resonated with the groups of young people, and infrequent voters. In focus groups, the response is generally along the lines of "I had no idea about the Inflation Reduction Act -- how come I still can't afford my rent and groceries?"
There is no doubt that Biden will go down in history as accomplishing the most legislatively since FDR's alphabet soup. But the question is how to get people to understand WHAT Trump and his minions will do. They won't read the GOP platform, much less Project 2025. Nor do they understand what dismantling the government will mean -- not to mention individual rights.
Tina, I don't have a good answer. And I'm not convinced that anyone will do better than Biden - but it doesn't look like he can win. Explain to me: how he can win if he loses blue states?
OK, look at England’s Election also. Biden has done a fantastic job. We don’t need to look like a complete cluster fuck of a party by throwing him out with the bathwater. We need to get the word out by about project 2025. More people need to pass out flyers about it, which my friends and I spent three hours doing yesterday and will be doing multiple times a week. This is how we should be focusing on the election.
My heart is with you. I'm currently fielding block captains throughout Chesco to build relationships with on the fence voters. AND YEA ON THE FLYERS!!! Please email me a copy, if it's okay, and I'll make sure they get passed around here. And while I personally hope he survives, it's looking less and less likely.
Whitmer gets mentioned a lot, but still I am surprised that these four rose to the top. ISSUES: I've been disappointed in Shapiro on some issues, primarily his support for school vouchers and lack of support for child care. Seems like he'd be a pro-business Dem but strong on reproductive rights. And he's only in his second year as Governor here. I don't know enough about he other three on issues. However, I'd be satisfied to vote for any of them at this point. I was pretty horrified watching the debate, and also have been furious with the NYT's unethical, one-sided push against Biden, enough to almost drop my sub yesterday (30 years). But when I heard he had Covid, I shifted to hoping this would be his easy out.
NONE of them are a "good" choice. Although all of them (and others) are decent choices in the next open cycle. They rose because they are removed from the administration. People you'd prefer, like Newsom and Buttigieg have national profiles, and people have opinions. These 4 are more under the radar, although they have made news for: being an astronaut married to an ex-Congresswoman terribly wounded by a gunman, first black governor of Maryland (you'd like him on schools) also 2 years in, the governor who re-built I-95 in record time (and live-streamed the reconstruction), head-to-head against TFG AND her would-be assassins are all in jail. Their individual issue positions don't matter - they are all young or young-ish, they support the party platform. Remember -- how one legislates or runs a state is different than being President.
If Kamala is not the top of the ticket, we'll be screwed.
I hear you -- which makes me wonder why she underperformed the other choices. It's a mystery to me.
She's got higher name recognition then the other four is the more likely reason for her not polling quite as well.
My biggest concern is the 40% of black voters who think Harris should be the nominee if it isn't Biden.
We cannot lose even a quarter of those voters if we were to pick someone else.
For what it's worth, I think the best ticket, if Biden steps aside, would be Harris with Shapiro as her VP.
If you listen to Wednesday's The Daily Blast with Greg Sergeant (a DSR Radio podcast), you'll hear Sarah Longwell say the same.
I agree with your assessment of Harris. It has to be her. But I'm thinking Andy Beshear over Josh Shapiro. Josh has only been governor for 2 years, and while I adore him, Beshear has more years in as governor, is more moderate, is from a red state, and above all, I greatly fear the sheer amount of antisemitism that is around.
Shapiro is very popular in PA. That popularity is an important base to work from and ought to accrue to the ticket's benefit in PA as well as MI & WI.
His getting I95 fixed, live streamed, is widely known and he's a very good politician. He's got the #Freedoms messaging down pat which is important.
As much as Shapiro isn't well known nationwide, Beshear is even less well known.
I understand. I really do. And I love him! And yes, the I-95 livestream was a brilliant idea.
This was coming, I would even say it was inevitable. I prefer a governor - can't be attack about lack of experience. Gov. Whitmer would be my top choice.
You have said this from the get go, and I didn't want this, I see problems with funding and acceptance -- but it does look inevitable at this point.
When ya gotta go, ya gotta go!
Do you have a preferred replacement pick?
Not really. Absent her withdrawal, the Veep is the practical choice and she could sell the product of the President's labors a lot better than he did or can. At minimum, she could scream to the media and the talking heads: that there is a statute on the books commanding asylum rules and procedures; and that Title 42 limiting the application of that statute during the Covid lockdown that Trump relied on expired; and then Former Guy Trump managed to convince the GOP House to reject remedial legislation in order to keep immigration in the forefront of the campaign.
She is a great prosecutor and would debate well against Trump -- although the campaign has said they won't commit to her debate with JD. Plus, she can keep the campaign money. It worries me that she doesn't poll as well as the other four.
Senator Mark Kelly would be a good candidate. Former astronaut, US Navy Captain, already have support in Arizona and would be tougher on gun control due to wife’s incident.
Tim has been a fan of his for YEARS.
Back to the question I asked you two weeks ago: Who's Kamala's VP?
Andy Beshear