Why is Pennsylvania so Difficult?

Once again, a presidential election is going to come down to the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania. Did you ever wonder WHY? I certainly have.

It’s not the biggest state, it’s not big at all – it’s 32^nd in terms of land area. Source. It is, however, the 5^th largest state by population, behind Texas, Florida and New York. Source. It’s 9^th by population density. Source. But those population and population density numbers cloud the fact that some of Pennsylvania is very population-dense, and some of it is rather barren in terms of population.

I’ve lived here in Pennsylvania for about 40 years, although I am not a native. I’ve been to much of the state, and can tell you that there is a true lack of homogeneity: of people, places and things. Not to mention political alignments.

If you’re not a Pennsylvanian, you may not be familiar with the term “Pennsyltucky”. It’s also referred to as “the T”.  The blue area in the map below is the area around Philadelphia, the area in red refers to Pittsburgh and its environs. Everything in white is “the T”. The “Insult” (coined by James Carville) is that the T is more like Kentucky than Pennsylvania.

I live in one of the collar counties around Philadelphia, and can assure you that my area is very different from the small towns that dot the T. And sure, there are differences between the Pittsburgh and Philadelphia areas. Like WaWa vs Sheetz. Like the Steelers vs the Eagles. Like Primanti Brothers sandwiches vs cheesesteaks.¹ But those two areas are more alike than different compared to the T.

Politically, one of the biggest differences relates to whether someone has graduated college, or has an advanced degree. And there’s a lot of geography to that soup. Before I explain why educational attainment matters so much, let’s look at a few numbers. Below are the two counties with the lowest and highest educational attainment of the top 30. You can see the full list here.

#30. Mercer County

22.7% of population 25 years and over with Bachelor's degree or higher

- Less than high school diploma: 10.1% ($21,234 median earnings)
- High school graduate: 41.8% ($30,838)
- Some college or Associate's degree: 25.3% ($31,933)
- Bachelor's degree: 14.5% ($50,855)
- Graduate or professional degree: 8.2% ($63,513)

#1. Chester County

54.2% of population 25 years and over with Bachelor's degree or higher

- Less than high school diploma: 5.7% ($26,828 median earnings)
- High school graduate: 20.5% ($38,601)
- Some college or Associate's degree: 19.6% ($45,127)
- Bachelor's degree: 31.9% ($71,043)
- Graduate or professional degree: 22.3% ($99,959)

You may be wondering why the lowest ranking is “county #30” when there are 67 counties in the Commonwealth. It’s because the article only reported on the top 30. The other counties have far less educational attainment. Overall, only 32.3% of Pennsylvanians have college degrees or higher. Source.

Having a college degree or an advanced degree doesn’t mean you’re smarter than someone who doesn’t have a degree. (Someone has to graduate last in the class, and there are lots of idiots at universities. Trust me.) Certainly, there are different markers for intelligence independent of academic achievement. However, there is a direct correlation between college degrees (or above) and voting in Pennsylvania, and other places, too.

This chart shows changes from 2016 – 2020 relative to the vote shift in Pennsylvania. What they looked at were votes tallied by precinct by party, and then compared to the educational attainment of the precinct.

Pretty stark.

So the question is WHY? It appears to be a cultural shift predicated on the VALUE placed on education.² Here’s a graphic from a Pew study from a few years ago. My guess is the trend lines haven’t changed. Both Democrats and Republicans think the major negative about college is the cost, but Republicans also think that there is a problem with free speech (not enough for students) and free speech (too much for professors). Not kidding, read the study.

I admit that I have my prejudices, as we all do. In my family, in my group of friends, in my overall community, the question growing up was never if one would go to college, but where? Many kids look to careers that they know about, thus the careers of their parents, other family, friends’ parents. I grew up with a lot of lawyers on both sides of my family, and actually planned to be a lawyer. Hard to do that without a college degree and a law degree. Some occupations don’t require college, BUT. For example, if you want to go into Finance, there is no educational requirement to get a Series 7 certification, but you’ll get a better job with an MBA. The people I grew up with who wanted careers that really didn’t require a college degree (amongst others: singer, comic, park ranger, circus clown³) still aspired to go to college because it wasn’t just the book learning, it was a whole experience. Not to mention the boys committed to college to get a deferment and avoid Vietnam.⁴

Yeah, yeah, I know, the world has changed a lot in 50 years. But I’m still a big fan of a worthwhile academic college experience. Along with things like science, in which Democrats have a great deal of confidence, and Republicans do not. Source. I also believe Neil Armstrong said: “That's one small step for man, one giant leap for mankind,” after landing on the moon.  Not to mention that Joseph Robinette Biden won the 2020 US Presidential Election. You can see where I’m going with this. The VALUE proposition between Democrats and Republicans is that most of us Democrats believe in truth, and most Republicans lack the ability to think clearly.

The question becomes whether the Republicans culturally avoid college because they don’t believe in the value of an advanced education, or if they didn’t go to college, and that lack of critical thinking knowledge made them the Neanderthals they are. (Again, not attending college does NOT make you a Neanderthal, although being a Republican does.)

Which brings us back to Pennsylvania.

The reason that Pennsylvania is so difficult is because of the great divide between those with college degrees and those without, ESPECIALLY white people, which matters in the Commonwealth because 78.28% of the population is white. Source. Or 81.36%. Source. Whatever the exact number, it’s a high percentage. That matters because educational attainment is less impactful on the votes of non-whites.

Certainly, education is not the only marker. More are discussed in this article. But there’s a lot of intersection. For example, there’s a huge gender divide in politics with women, especially this year, overwhelmingly preferring Vice President Harris to the Convicted Felon. More women than men complete college. And then there is the issue of economics. In general (not always but it’s pretty consistent over years) people in bad economic straits tend to want to vote for the party out of power believing that the incumbents caused their economic problems. IN GENERAL, people with college degrees, and advanced degrees, make appreciably more money than those with high school degrees, or less education. Data from the Social Security Administration, and face it, they know how much everyone makes. (The SSA link shows how much more money people make over a lifetime with degrees.)

So when you see that the polls are tied 50/50 in Pennsylvania, and these are the Electoral College votes that could decide the election, remember:

• 67.7% of Pennsylvanians do not have college degrees

• About 80% of Pennsylvanians are white

• White people without college degrees tend to vote Republican

• Fewer Republicans in Pennsylvania have college degrees than Democrats

The enthusiasm of women, young voters, people of color, overall DEMOCRATS may not be enough. We must make headway with the less educated people, especially in the hinterlands. Of note, people with less education are often less politically informed than people with more education. Again, a generalization and there are exceptions. People in different parts of Pennsylvania speak, dress, and act, differently.⁵ We must meet them where they are.

So, PLEASE if you live in Pennsylvania, go canvass. Talk to your family, friends and neighbors. If you live outside of Pennsylvania, PLEASE HELP US. Come here to canvass. Or use this link to phone bank.

ELECTIONS ARE WON —>

HOUSE BY HOUSE, PERSON BY PERSON, BLOCK BY BLOCK

1. If you’ve never had a sandwich from Primanti Brothers – they put FRENCH FRIES on all their sandwiches.

2. David Hopkins is a Political Scientist at Boston College. This is an interview he did recently all about the academic divide, and it’s worth a look. He’s written two books, but I don’t recommend them because I question some of his approach, and he may be informed about the academic divide, but writing is not his strong suit.

3. Yes, really. Circus clown.

4. True story – I met Mickey on my first day of college. He was the boyfriend of the girl in the dorm room across from me. Mickey was a first semester junior. When I graduated, Mickey was a second semester junior. His plan was to be 4 credits shy of every major until the world was “safe.”

5. A number of years ago, I was charged with fielding a group of women from the Main Line to canvass in an area that was, um, different from what they knew. We had met a few days earlier at the campaign field office, and I gave them very clear instructions. And yet, every single one of them turned up in designer clothes, porting designer bags, and wearing a lot of expensive jewelry. They meant well, they could follow the scripts, and yet I had to send them all home. We must reach people where they are, and NOT send canvassers decked out in items the potential voters will never be able to afford.