You may be right. But I am uncertain as to which spoke in our wheel of commerce will fall off first; deportation of immigrants or imposition of tariffs coupled with automatic renewal of the Trump tax cuts. Immigrants employed in vital food production might survive Trump's inklings to rid the Nation or all "those rapists, terrorists, criminal and pet eaters"; but the Nation cannot long survive immediate, as promised, exercise of his Executive power to impose Tariffs plus the automatic renewal of the Trump tax cuts on January 1, 2025.
I've thought about "what he'd do first". He cannot reauthorize the tax cuts -- that has to come from Congress. And I don't know if he can start rounding people up immediately -- I mean, he can, if he declares martial law and sends out the military. Which begs the logistics question - when you round up the deportees -- how do you figure out where to send them? Do you just send military transports to other countries (which may or may not allow for the planes landing) and leave people on the tarmac?
He can immediately impose tariffs. And I am guessing that would take about a month to get people to realize what happened. If things are too expensive, people won't buy them. And, OF COURSE, that will impact the poor first. The first tariffs would likely be on Mexican and Chinese goods. So, while he'd be going after Mexican cars, tractors and other purchases people can put off, through the law of unintended consequences, the first hit would be to avocados, tomatoes and other crops with a short shelf life. Chinese stuff? I assume that immediately lines that could shift, would. Like textiles, clothing and knick-knacks to the rest of Asia. The big problem with Chinese tariffs are the medical supplies we can't get anywhere else, along with the metals and other raw materials we need.
No matter how we look at it, it will be a disaster.
I'm hoping that the death of Sinwar will restart the peace process, we'll have something on the table in a week, at least a framework of a deal for hostage release and ceasefire, and that would help us on 5 November.
I would be glad to share this post if you made two corrections.First, Japanese Americans were “interned” not “interred.” Second, and this is becoming a real pet peeve of mine, Native Americans (or First Nations peoples, as the Canadians say) are ALSO the descendants of immigrants. No humans evolved in the Western Hemisphere. It was populated by people who came from Eurasia. Yes, they came much earlier than anyone else, but they also came here as immigrants.
First, THANK YOU FOR CATCHING MY TYPO!!!! I have corrected that. Please always let me know about typos - I make them more often than I'd like.
As for the Native Americans, what I'd always been taught was that the first humans to arrive here did so between 13,000 and 20,000 years ago. I've read that there is some discussion about whether that was over a land bridge around the time of the last Ice Age, or later by boat. As compared to the people who came over only several hundred years ago. 10's of thousands of years ago, there weren't really countries, in my understanding, and people moved around for a variety of reasons, thus there wasn't really "Immigration" as we understand moving from country to country. In my mind, the Native Americans (or First Nations peoples) were the original people here.
I am interested in why you consider them immigrants when people were all moving around. Is it a genetic issue? A cultural issue? I am honestly interested in your take on this.
Thanks for replying to my comment. I really enjoy reading your Substack, so I’m glad you didn’t think I was just being disagreeable.
I guess I don’t use the word “immigrant” in this context as moving from one nation state to another, formally or informally. The ancient Athenians distinguished themselves from other Greek city states through a foundation myth that they were autochthonous — literally sprung from the soil of Attica. I believe some tribal nations have similar myths.
But the reality is that everyone living in what is now the US came from someplace else or is descended from someone who came from someplace else. That’s why I really prefer the Canadian term “First Nations.” It accurately describes the relationship of these populations to all the other folks who came in later. It also reminds people that these are all very distinct cultures, not just a category we late comers lumped together as “indigenous.”
And by the way, you’d be surprised how many death notices make the opposite mistake and say that the deceased “will be interned at King David Cemetery.”
I try to respond to all comments! I greatly appreciate the time it takes to think things through and compose a comment.
I didn't think you were being disagreeable, I wanted to understand. And I'm going to think about what you said, and do some research -- the little research I've done in the past has to do with genetics in terms of "where people came from". I became interested in this when my grandmother was involved in a genetics experiment maybe 30 years ago -- I have to find the research (somewhere in my paper records) to recall all the details.
I think of "immigration" the way it is commonly used today, relating to the nation-state movement, because I think that's where we get into trouble.
I will find the genetics info and get it to you -- likely it will be after the election...so many doors to knock!
Ice cream is my favorite food group. I make it all summer...
Not disputing the workers, but how would it affect the Dairy Price Support Programs and the Farm Bill? Milk prices are already artificially high, a half-gallon of ice cream is now 1 1/2 quarts - at the same or higher price - and there's a billion - yes billion - pounds of cheese in federal warehouses. (Remember the Patty Hearst/Symbionese Liberation Army cheese giveaway?) Would it then totally end government price supports and subsidies and have milk and other food products - corn, wheat, and soy - the most subsidized crops - become actual free-market commodities?
Farmers have already seen the effect of migrant worker shortages. It kinda boggles the mind that they would support these cretins. Then, again, most of our food comes from conglomerates with boards and stockholders.
The dairy farmers would say that milk prices are lower than they used to be, given inflation on the costs of production and wages, and that it's often cheaper to pour the milk off on the land than bring it to market.
I don't know what will happen to the farm bill -- as I understand it, it was only reauthorized through 30 September 2024, and then extended with the CR which ends in December -- but I believe it needs to be reauthorized separately. Because it covers much more than price supports, there's always a lot of give and take when they go through this every 5 years. A free-market food economy would be really interesting - if there were no farm bill, there would be no loans to farmers as there are under the bill. That would put a lot of farmers out of business irrespective of workforce.
I am amazed at how you learned all this about dairy farming, etc. It is an eye opener for the rest of us City folk living off the fat of the land. If this madman Trump is reelected, however, the destruction of the dairy industry may be the least of our problems. His Tariff supported economy will get us back to 1929 in a hurry. That's when I was born and I remember people on bread lines, begging in the streets and jumping off roofs. (I guess guns weren't around back then). If you don't want to go back to singing "Brother Can You Spare A Dime" (It still plays in my mind almost a century later), vote Harris.
Don't be amazed! I am my parents' daughter -- remember that mom was a reference librarian for a lot of years, so I know how to research things. Dad taught me how to flesh out an idea -- and once you do that, the research is fun!
You KNOW I'm voting a straight blue ticket, and I assume that everyone who reads my stuff will, also, and I know my friends, family and neighbors all will, too. Yeah, that's not enough, but fingers crossed.
I think that the milk problem will hit before the tariff problems are made manifest. Don't get me wrong -- I think tariffs will be the death of our economy, and between the direct impacts, and the global implications, it will be 1929 again. But that will take some time -- a lack of milk will occur in less than a week. Think what happens in schools when there is no milk and cheese for all those hungry kids who depend on school breakfasts and lunches.
It will certainly be close, and hopefully, things will break our way.
You may be right. But I am uncertain as to which spoke in our wheel of commerce will fall off first; deportation of immigrants or imposition of tariffs coupled with automatic renewal of the Trump tax cuts. Immigrants employed in vital food production might survive Trump's inklings to rid the Nation or all "those rapists, terrorists, criminal and pet eaters"; but the Nation cannot long survive immediate, as promised, exercise of his Executive power to impose Tariffs plus the automatic renewal of the Trump tax cuts on January 1, 2025.
I've thought about "what he'd do first". He cannot reauthorize the tax cuts -- that has to come from Congress. And I don't know if he can start rounding people up immediately -- I mean, he can, if he declares martial law and sends out the military. Which begs the logistics question - when you round up the deportees -- how do you figure out where to send them? Do you just send military transports to other countries (which may or may not allow for the planes landing) and leave people on the tarmac?
He can immediately impose tariffs. And I am guessing that would take about a month to get people to realize what happened. If things are too expensive, people won't buy them. And, OF COURSE, that will impact the poor first. The first tariffs would likely be on Mexican and Chinese goods. So, while he'd be going after Mexican cars, tractors and other purchases people can put off, through the law of unintended consequences, the first hit would be to avocados, tomatoes and other crops with a short shelf life. Chinese stuff? I assume that immediately lines that could shift, would. Like textiles, clothing and knick-knacks to the rest of Asia. The big problem with Chinese tariffs are the medical supplies we can't get anywhere else, along with the metals and other raw materials we need.
No matter how we look at it, it will be a disaster.
I'm hoping that the death of Sinwar will restart the peace process, we'll have something on the table in a week, at least a framework of a deal for hostage release and ceasefire, and that would help us on 5 November.
I would be glad to share this post if you made two corrections.First, Japanese Americans were “interned” not “interred.” Second, and this is becoming a real pet peeve of mine, Native Americans (or First Nations peoples, as the Canadians say) are ALSO the descendants of immigrants. No humans evolved in the Western Hemisphere. It was populated by people who came from Eurasia. Yes, they came much earlier than anyone else, but they also came here as immigrants.
First, THANK YOU FOR CATCHING MY TYPO!!!! I have corrected that. Please always let me know about typos - I make them more often than I'd like.
As for the Native Americans, what I'd always been taught was that the first humans to arrive here did so between 13,000 and 20,000 years ago. I've read that there is some discussion about whether that was over a land bridge around the time of the last Ice Age, or later by boat. As compared to the people who came over only several hundred years ago. 10's of thousands of years ago, there weren't really countries, in my understanding, and people moved around for a variety of reasons, thus there wasn't really "Immigration" as we understand moving from country to country. In my mind, the Native Americans (or First Nations peoples) were the original people here.
I am interested in why you consider them immigrants when people were all moving around. Is it a genetic issue? A cultural issue? I am honestly interested in your take on this.
Thanks for replying to my comment. I really enjoy reading your Substack, so I’m glad you didn’t think I was just being disagreeable.
I guess I don’t use the word “immigrant” in this context as moving from one nation state to another, formally or informally. The ancient Athenians distinguished themselves from other Greek city states through a foundation myth that they were autochthonous — literally sprung from the soil of Attica. I believe some tribal nations have similar myths.
But the reality is that everyone living in what is now the US came from someplace else or is descended from someone who came from someplace else. That’s why I really prefer the Canadian term “First Nations.” It accurately describes the relationship of these populations to all the other folks who came in later. It also reminds people that these are all very distinct cultures, not just a category we late comers lumped together as “indigenous.”
And by the way, you’d be surprised how many death notices make the opposite mistake and say that the deceased “will be interned at King David Cemetery.”
I try to respond to all comments! I greatly appreciate the time it takes to think things through and compose a comment.
I didn't think you were being disagreeable, I wanted to understand. And I'm going to think about what you said, and do some research -- the little research I've done in the past has to do with genetics in terms of "where people came from". I became interested in this when my grandmother was involved in a genetics experiment maybe 30 years ago -- I have to find the research (somewhere in my paper records) to recall all the details.
I think of "immigration" the way it is commonly used today, relating to the nation-state movement, because I think that's where we get into trouble.
I will find the genetics info and get it to you -- likely it will be after the election...so many doors to knock!
There's no such thing as cruelty-free milk
You always tell me this...
Ice cream is my favorite food group. I make it all summer...
Not disputing the workers, but how would it affect the Dairy Price Support Programs and the Farm Bill? Milk prices are already artificially high, a half-gallon of ice cream is now 1 1/2 quarts - at the same or higher price - and there's a billion - yes billion - pounds of cheese in federal warehouses. (Remember the Patty Hearst/Symbionese Liberation Army cheese giveaway?) Would it then totally end government price supports and subsidies and have milk and other food products - corn, wheat, and soy - the most subsidized crops - become actual free-market commodities?
Farmers have already seen the effect of migrant worker shortages. It kinda boggles the mind that they would support these cretins. Then, again, most of our food comes from conglomerates with boards and stockholders.
The dairy farmers would say that milk prices are lower than they used to be, given inflation on the costs of production and wages, and that it's often cheaper to pour the milk off on the land than bring it to market.
I don't know what will happen to the farm bill -- as I understand it, it was only reauthorized through 30 September 2024, and then extended with the CR which ends in December -- but I believe it needs to be reauthorized separately. Because it covers much more than price supports, there's always a lot of give and take when they go through this every 5 years. A free-market food economy would be really interesting - if there were no farm bill, there would be no loans to farmers as there are under the bill. That would put a lot of farmers out of business irrespective of workforce.
YES! The cheese giveaway!
I am amazed at how you learned all this about dairy farming, etc. It is an eye opener for the rest of us City folk living off the fat of the land. If this madman Trump is reelected, however, the destruction of the dairy industry may be the least of our problems. His Tariff supported economy will get us back to 1929 in a hurry. That's when I was born and I remember people on bread lines, begging in the streets and jumping off roofs. (I guess guns weren't around back then). If you don't want to go back to singing "Brother Can You Spare A Dime" (It still plays in my mind almost a century later), vote Harris.
Don't be amazed! I am my parents' daughter -- remember that mom was a reference librarian for a lot of years, so I know how to research things. Dad taught me how to flesh out an idea -- and once you do that, the research is fun!
You KNOW I'm voting a straight blue ticket, and I assume that everyone who reads my stuff will, also, and I know my friends, family and neighbors all will, too. Yeah, that's not enough, but fingers crossed.
I think that the milk problem will hit before the tariff problems are made manifest. Don't get me wrong -- I think tariffs will be the death of our economy, and between the direct impacts, and the global implications, it will be 1929 again. But that will take some time -- a lack of milk will occur in less than a week. Think what happens in schools when there is no milk and cheese for all those hungry kids who depend on school breakfasts and lunches.
It will certainly be close, and hopefully, things will break our way.