Tomorrow Could be a Game-Changer

Tomorrow is going to be a very exciting day. Let’s dig in.

Wisconsin Supreme Court Race

Tomorrow, Susan Crawford and Brad Schimel will face off to see who will win the Wisconsin State Supreme Court seat being vacated due to the retirement of Ann Walsh Bradley after she served for 30 years. With Justice Bradley, the court is 4 - 3 (4 decent people, and 3 cretins).

All of us normal people are rooting for Judge Susan Crawford. Brad has been endorsed by the Convicted Felon, and Elmo has been handing out checks (in violation of law and common decency) in an attempt to buy votes. Total spending is expected to top $100 million (you read that right) - with Judge Crawford crushing Brad in total donations, with a lot of Brad’s money coming directly from Elmo, who was in Wisconsin last night campaigning and trying to buy votes. Financial info.

If Judge Crawford wins, it will be yet another blow against the empire.

Fingers crossed that good triumphs over evil.

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On to Florida

First, just to be sure we’re all on the same page, currently the split in the House is 218 - 213. There are four open seats, the two in Florida, as well as two Democratic seats open due to the recent passings of Sylvester Turner and Raul Grijalva.

There are two Florida CDs with elections tomorrow, due to the resignation of their members at the start of this Congressional session. The race “everybody” is talking about is the 6th. It starts on the coast at St. Augustine, goes south to Dayton Beach, and goes west to the edges of Gainesville, Ocala and Leesburg. It’s Ron DeathSantis’ old district, and most recently held by Mike Waltz, of Signalgate fame.

The candidates are MAGA Randy Fine, endorsed by Shitler (who wouldn’t even campaign, but held a tele-town hall last week), who theoretically should have walked to victory given the redness of the District. The Democrat is Josh Weill, a school teacher and single dad of two sons. In “normal” times, the outcome would be in the range of 65-35 Fine over Weill. But these are not normal times. The polling indicates a dead heat, with Fine ahead by 4 points, inside the 5 point margin of error. In addition, if you look at early voting, Weill is ahead 51% to 43%. More data points. As an aside, there have been Tesla Takedown protests in all the major cities and towns in the District.

The Rethuglicans are so nervous about this race that they pulled Elise Stefanik’s UN nomination, first to keep her voting, and second, because they’re pretty sure her NY seat would turn blue in any special election.

As for CD 1: the seat is open due to the resignation of Matt Gaetz so he could be AG (didn’t work out for you, did it? you pedophile.). The Rethuglican is Jimmy Patronis, who’s fairly well known. No Rethuglican has actually had to raise money for this seat since Joe (I bow at Mar-a-Lardo) Scarborough first ran for the seat in 1994. The Democrat, Gay Valimont, lost to Gaetz last year by 32 points, in a district with a 3:1 Rethuglican registration edge, in a year that Matt was under investigation for all sorts of ethics violations¹.

Most people think that CD 1 will stay red, but I’m not convinced. This CD is in the Florida panhandle, home to Elgin AFB and NAS Pensacola, and a huge contingent of Veterans. Ms. Valimont has been running ads, putting up billboards, doing digital with the $6.7 million she’s raised. I don’t know about you, but if I were a veteran I’d be very concerned about the VA cuts. If I were active duty military, I’d be concerned with having to deploy to Greenland, Panama or Canada. Even if I weren’t a yellow dog Democrat, I’d think twice before sending a MAGA Rethuglican to Congress in 2025. As of last weekend, Rethuglican early voting and mail-ins were only ahead by about 5 points. We’ll see. Might be a surprise upset, and if not, this will NOT be a 32 point spread. More info on the race.

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Car Tariffs

Yes, I know they start on Wednesday and not tomorrow, but you never know what Von Shitzenpants might change in the run-up, plus, I wanted to save “Liberation Day” for a tariff story you likely don’t know about.

In the interest of full disclosure, I love cars, or more accurately, I love driving some cars. Give me a fully rebuilt 1965 rag top, HiPo V8, 3-speed Mustang (with pony package) and I’ll spend all nice weather days tooling around. At the other end of the spectrum, I’m a little “in like” with a fresh from the factory VW ID Buzz². YUMMERS. I could wax poetic for a while, but for now, I very happily drive a 2017, 6-speed Honda Fit with sunroof, kick a** stereo system, and magic seats.

Like many people who have cars, I NEED ONE. I don’t live in a place easily accessible to public transportation. Also like many people, before I lost my immune system, I used my car to commute daily to the office.

If my car died today, I would have to buy a new car. This is the position a lot of people are in.

And yet, the tariffs are going to make car buying a huge problem for many people. Remember, for many people, a car is the second most expensive thing they buy (after a mortgage, if indeed they can afford to buy a house). Average car price? WOW:

Using math, and assuming there is only ONE 25% tariff on a car³, that means the average price of a new car will be $60,501.25. Average US salary in 2024? $59,384. Source.

I wouldn’t even consider spending over a year’s salary on a car. But that might just be me because I buy inexpensive, safe, little, manual transmission cars, and always have. What about you?

That was the fun part. The serious and horrible part is that IF the Orange Menace actually imposes the tariffs on Wednesday⁴, we can look at much higher prices by May, along with job losses and other economic effects. In fact, the Atlanta Fed is now projecting a LOSS of -2.8% to annual GDP. Source.

Already, Cleveland-Cliffs Dearborn Works, a plant that supplies steel for the auto industry, has announced layoffs of about 600 workers (500 hourly and 100 salaried) in July due to “weak automotive production”, and that’s pre-tariff. Source.

The Orange Menace has said that tariffs will bring manufacturing back to the US, but since he lacks the ability to think things through, he neglects to consider how long it takes to stand up a manufacturing facility. For example, in 2023, as part of negotiations with the UAW, Stellantis agreed to reopen the Belvidere Assembly plant. It’s an EXISTING facility. So, opening this month? This summer? NO - reopening is planned for 2027. Probably. Source.

I think you can see where this is going. Disaster.

Tomorrow, more on tariffs, including what happened LAST time. <grin>

1. Have I mentioned lately that all Rethuglicans are morons?

2. But only if I win the lottery (which I don’t play) because it costs $72,000 before the tariffs.

3. This is low, because while that would be the total tariff for, say, a car built 100% in Germany and exported to the US, most cars use parts from multiple countries, and so there are multiple tariffs on parts, not to mention steel and aluminum.

4. No telling what he’ll actually do AND keep in mind - between the Adderall and the dementia, even he doesn’t know.