Thinking about Los Angeles

I’m thinking about three things, and I have many questions.

1. The Devastation

There are not enough discrete words to fully describe what has happened in LA. I had to drive somewhere the other day, and I tried to imagine if that sort of fire happened here, what would the hellscape look like? What would be recognizable? Would it be so destroyed that it would be difficult to discern one house carcass from another?

And the people. What’s left of my broken heart aches. I try to put myself in the victims’ positions. I cannot wrap my head around it. I sit safe, inside, and all I can do is send money¹.

The warnings came so quickly that people didn’t have time to prepare, and many left with only the clothes they were wearing. The horror stories of people who were at work and couldn’t get home to their pets.

And the size. THE SIZE! Use this interactive map to compare where you live to the size of the fire.

2. The Politics

The MAGA Rethuglicans are going to try and tie aid to raising the debt ceiling. All you need to know is that:

1. California is a Democratic state, and MAGA Rethuglicans want to see each and every Democrat suffer. Along with anyone who lives there who is not a registered Democrat, like children too young to register to vote.

2. MAGA Rethuglicans want to tie aid to raising the debt ceiling. They want to raise the debt ceiling so that they can add trillions of dollars to the national debt by creating tax cuts for the super-wealthy, and this is one way of getting buy in².

The horror of MAGA’s cruelty and dedication to further damage is in some ways worse that the fires themselves.

The United States of America is founded on the principle of We, The People.

Remember Lincoln’s Gettysburg Address?

I understand the politics all too well. The Grand Old Party used to stand for fiscal responsibility. They didn’t actually DO that - GOP presidents (like Ronnie and the Convicted Felon) tended to increase the debt more than most Democratic presidents. But at least they pretended to care.

For context, read this article on the changes to the national debt under President Biden and the Convicted Felon. Salient points: the Felon raised the debt more than double what President Biden did, and a large percentage of Felon’s debt was due to tax cuts that exclusively benefitted the wealthy and failed at everything else the legislation promised to do.

The MAGA Rethuglicans do not even pay lip service to cutting the $36 trillion debt, which, thanks to the Convicted Felon’s tax cuts, has now become dangerous. It’s serious enough that it could easily cause global repercussions, due to the size of our economy.

And remember, they don’t want to spend money for anything worthwhile, like support for the victims of the California fires, nor housing the homeless, raising SNAP benefits³, educating children, healing the sick (or even preventing illness by leveraging vaccines) or anything else GOOD. They want to spend money to make the rich, richer. Period. Mic drop.

3. The Aftermath

At some point the fires will be put out. Either through the efforts of the awesome, valiant firefighters, or because there is nothing left to burn. And eventually, it will rain. At that point, all the toxic chemicals, debris and burnt vegetation will come down the hills and prove destructive to the Pacific Ocean’s ecosystem and marine life.

Think about the toxic stuff people have in their houses and garages: bleach, oven cleaner, drain cleaner, motor oil, antifreeze, pesticides, batteries, fluorescent light bulbs, for a start. It’s all going to go downhill, and at the bottom of that hill is the ocean.

Is it possible to prevent that environmental damage? If not, where are the mitigation plans?

Already, a house that survived the fire was bisected by a landslide. And it hasn’t rained yet. Will the afflicted land be able to support rebuilding?

Already, there is a scramble for rental housing, and buying houses in an area that is already short on housing stock. Some background. Right now, people are in shelters, AirBNBs, with friends and relatives, in their cars, or (for the glutton class) second homes. These people either have to find dwelling options, move away, or end up homeless.

Governor Newsom has suspended some permitting requirements that will make rebuilding easier. But I have a few questions for which I lack answers:

• Most homes require wood. Where will that come from? They’ll need 10,000 to 20,000 truckloads of lumber.

• Will housing be rebuilt with fire-resistant architecture? Will homeowners be willing to keep clear areas around their homes? Here’s how some houses survived.

• While California has laws preventing gouging, that doesn’t prevent bidding wars, which are already being seen on rentals. Will people be evicted to make room for those who can pay more?

• Will people be able to get mortgages to rebuild? Lenders require insurance for a mortgage, and it appears that lots of people had their policies canceled. So homeowners who lost their homes to the fires will need to repay those mortgages (after any forbearance) without payouts from policies on which they’d paid for years. Will they be able to get the loans they need if insurance is either not possible, or insurance cost makes total housing costs impossible⁴?

• LA is hosting the summer Olympics in 2028. LA won’t be rebuilt by then. The city of LA, and the state of California, are on the hook for monies not raised/donated for the Olympics: should they prioritize rebuilding LA infrastructure over the Olympics? Should LA ask Paris to do the 2028 Olympics? They’re set for it⁵.

If they did things my way…

If they put me in charge, here’s what I would do. You can actually stop reading now, this is just my pipe dream.

1. Quit calling them “wildfires” - these were urban firestorms. They didn’t spread through vegetation as much as they went house to house. Google and look at the remaining trees. We need this framework to think about protecting OTHER cities going forward in terms of hardening architecture and clear areas, as well as planning for evacuations and firefighting. Cities are different from rural areas.

2. Let the Convicted Felon’s tax cuts expire at the end of this year and use the money for better outcomes⁶.

3. Give FEMA and the SBA everything they need for LA, as well as have extra available for other disasters - climate change isn’t going anywhere but “worse”, so this is not the last fire, nor have we seen the last hurricane, flood, tornado, earthquake or anything else nature can throw at us.

4. Get a bunch of environmentalists, geologists and related professionals to develop solutions for at least mitigation of the Pacific Ocean problems NOW. I am NOT talking some 2-year study leading to legislation: just solutions and implementation as soon as possible.

5. Scrap the zoning laws that preclude multi-family dwelling units and ADUs throughout California⁷.

6. Update local zoning laws to include that structures need to be hardened, including things like fire-rated walls, no vents, spare landscaping, fencing with gates that can be held open. Pair this will state outreach to insurers to insure new houses/condos/apartment buildings with these features as it reduces the risk profile to the insurance companies.

7. Shout out to Karen Bass — call Anne Hildalgo and Rémi Féraud (current mayor of Paris, and likely successor, respectively) and see if they’d do the 2028 Olympics. Offer to give them the donations already collected in exchange for some appropriate branding.

That’s what I’ve got - please put your suggestions in the comments.

1. There are great organizations who will help directly. A partial list is at this link, and it includes information on how to avoid getting scammed when giving donations.

2. The House has put out the Rethuglican plans for cuts — I’ll be writing about some of them once I can get the taste of bile out of my mouth from having read the list.

3. Currently the max is $9.70/person per day, less if the household has some income. I challenge you to try to eat for $10/day every day for a month.

4. I am not talking about rich people. They’re all set.

Whilst they can often afford to, most wealthy people don’t pay cash for properties because they can make a better investment with their money elsewhere. Ultra high-net-worth individuals likely have the ability to generate substantial returns on their investments, so if the return on an investment portfolio is higher than the interest rate on a mortgage, it makes financial sense to use their cash to invest elsewhere.

5. Yes, these are the kinds of things I think about. And I’m the farthest thing from a sports fan as a person can be - but this is a political priorities question.

6. And yes, I have thoughts on that, but this post is only about LA.

7. I’d love to see them rescind California Propositions 13 and 103 because that would help, too, but that is NOT going to happen despite the damage both have caused.