The CR is a Done Deal
As predicted, the Chaos Caucus got NONE of what they wanted from the CR. The CR will fund the government effectually at current levels through 20 December 2024, without the inclusion of the disastrous SAVE Act. And for the 7th time, major legislation passed the House with Democratic votes. In this case, the vote was 341 - 82. Within the GOP caucus, 132 voted for it, and 82 against, meaning Moscow Mike needed the side of truth and light to accomplish anything. The Senate will vote tonight and it will pass easily.
This set up is a lot of fun because the government will need to be funded 5 days before Christmas. Normally, Congress would be adjourning for the year on the 19th for their holiday break. There will be two choices: an Omnibus, which would include all 12 Appropriations bills, or another CR. There’s noise about passing 12 separate Appropriations bills, but there’s no topline agreement between negotiators, with Democrats insisting that the McCarthy-Biden deal sticks, and additional disaster funding is included, and the Chaos Caucus wanting to basically defund everything. (Except their own salaries, of course.)
How this turns out will be a function of who wins the House in November. The makeup of the House won’t change appreciably.1 The GOP may actually try for an Omnibus if we win the House, over the objections of the Chaos Caucus, to preclude the next House from funding the government at higher levels than they want. Moscow Mike Johnson has said this can’t possibly happen. Which is what he said every single time he could only pass things with Democratic votes.
They may just punt with a CR so they can get out of Dodge. Remember, if there are members who lose re-election, they may not show up as lame ducks, which conceivably COULD change the makeup of the House. While a numerical Democratic majority of voting Congressmen and Congresswomen wouldn’t trigger a new Speaker election (the losers still technically hold their seats) it does impact the actual number of people voting.
If we win the House, there is a scant possibility that the government would shut down from late December to early January, when the House reconvenes. Unlike the fiasco that led to Kevin McCarthy being elected speaker in 2023, Congressman Hakeem Jeffries would be elected Speaker on the first vote, and work could commence, and likely, since we PREPARE, our Appropriations Bills will be ready for the first or second day of term. Sorry, that’s a fever dream. It will take a week.
A few seats will be filled on November 6th, or whenever vote counting is complete, for the special election seats.
The Veep can make all kinds of promises, but without a similarly oriented Congress little progress can be had. I have hopes for the House, but I fear the Senate likely is beyond reach.