The 2025 New York City Mayoral Primary

Substack provides me with statistics related to subscribers. Therefore, I know I don’t have a lot of subscribers in New York, but having been born in lower Manhattan, there’s a special place in my heart for the politics of my hometown.

In the interest of full disclosure, as a Native New Yorker, I am an absolute snob in regards to pizza and bagels. If you think I’m passionate about politics, try to imagine my screeds regarding ONLY NY PIZZA AND BAGELS¹.

But anyway - there is a primary on 24 June for the position of NYC mayor (with 10 days of early voting) and when I look at the major candidates, I am seriously amused. In the photo above, the three leading candidates are (from left to right) Andrew Cuomo (Democrat), Eric Adams (Independent) and Curtis Sliwa (Republican). There are no other Republicans that I know of, and several other Democratic and Independent candidates. You can read about all of them here.

In the modern era, the vast majority of NYC mayors have been Democrats. The one exception was Rudy Giuliani, and to a lesser extent John Lindsay (started as a Republican and switched to be a Democrat) and Mike Bloomberg (started as a Republican, and has dithered ever since.) Therefore, there is a high statistical probability that the winner of the Democratic primary will end up mayor in November. Be aware that the primary is ranked choice, and we’ll get to that in a bit.

Current Mayor Eric Adams, until recently a Democrat, and oh, also a supposed vegan (who eats fish), was charged last year with a litany of crimes related to campaign finance, embezzlement, fraud, yada yada yada. The DoJ of the fascist regime wanted Eric to do bad things to migrants in NYC and basically said that they’d drop all the charges against him, without prejudice, if he’d work with them. That meant that at any point, if he didn’t act as the lackey they wanted, DoJ could reinstate the charges.

The judge overseeing the case looked into things, and determined he had no power to force DoJ to prosecute, however, he did dismiss the case WITH prejudice, meaning the case cannot be reinstated. Still, Eric decided he’d be better off running as an Independent, since he has infuriated so many Democrats during his term. He survived the primary 4 years ago BECAUSE of ranked choice voting. There were too many liberal and progressive Democrats who split votes in the rounds, and sadly, Eric won NARROWLY on a “law and order” platform. (He had been with the NYPD for years.) He won that November over Curtis Sliwa.

Curtis is fascinating. Until a few years ago, he was a member of the Reform Party, which had been started by Ross Perot. More interestingly, he founded the vigilante group Guardian Angels in 1977 to combat crime in NYC, especially on the subways. Below is a photo from 1980, Curtis is the guy dead center in the front row.

The Guardian Angels did their thing until 1992, when they were sued with making false statements, including faking various rescues and thwarting kidnappings that had never happened.

But now, he’s running as a non-MAGA Republican. He thinks he can win because the Convicted Felon garnered 30% of the NYC vote last November. Um, 30% is not a winning number.

And then we come to Andrew Cuomo, currently leading in polling. Below is a chart (prior to Adams dropping out of the Democratic primary) that projects how the rounds will fall: Source.

Even if you’re not a New Yorker, you may well remember Andrew Cuomo from his stint as NY Governor. In 2020, he gave a daily noon briefing (albeit often late) about Covid. It was informative, and for a lot of us, really worth watching as we were locked down, scared, and there were not yet any vaccines.

Andrew is the son of the late, great, Mario Cuomo. When Mario was governor of NY he balanced the budget, enacted sweeping ethics reforms, and dedicated a decade to the betterment of children in the state, amoungst many, MANY, things. But what I remember him most for was his 1984 Keynote Address at the DNC, where he smacked down Ronnie Raygun, who had claimed a few days earlier that the US was a “shining city on a hill”. If you didn’t hear the speech, don’t remember it, or have no idea what I’m talking about, you should read it. Link. Even if you never click a link, click this one: the speech is one for the ages, and is a speech that someone should get up and recite today, because it perfectly encapsulates where the Democratic Party needs to be TODAY, and for what it needs to stand NOW. READ THE SPEECH!

Andrew’s term as governor didn’t end well for him. He had been on track to match the three terms his dad has served, and potentially run for, and win, a fourth term in 2022. But due to numerous scandals related to Covid nursing home deaths, a book deal, and accusations of sexual harassment, he resigned in 2021. His political career seemed to be over.

Cuomo will most likely win the primary. His closest rival is Zohran Mamdani, a self-described pro-Palestine socialist Democrat. Mamdani is the most left of all the left-wing Democratic candidates, he’s got a lot of local name recognition, and he’s raised a ton of money. But he’s dead in the water. The same groups that tanked Jamaal Bowman’s 2024 congressional re-election campaign last year are working to make sure that Mamdani meets the same fate. Bowman (a member of “The Squad”) fell in the primary to George Latimer (who later won the seat).

And so, meet Mayoral Democratic candidate (and the likely next mayor) Andrew Cuomo, battle-tested, going for a true political comeback. He will easily trounce Eric Adams, who is not only a criminal (yeah, I know, innocent until proven guilty, but my gut says….) but reviled by much of New York City, AND after appointing supporters to various positions, watched them fall away as they, too, were indicted for various crimes, came under FBI investigation, or just resigned to get away from the stench. And as for Curtis Sliwa? If you are an age 55 or older New Yorker, you rode the subway system after the start of the Guardian Angels, and you remember those red beret toughs marching through subway cars. Personally, I found them terrifying. I bet a lot of other people feel the same way.

The thing I find amusing about this race is that most voters vote the party not the person. But for those voters who actually consider the candidates, they’ll choose between an alleged sexual harasser², a criminal, and a vigilante. Don’t get me wrong - there’s a lot that will go on with the Democratic primary: jockeying with positions, and plans, and promises, and I could end up shocked because someone else won the primary.

But the bottom line is that Eric Adams has been a disaster for New York City in every way imaginable during his term. Curtis Sliwa doesn’t have the experience, nor the chops to run the largest city in the nation. Meanwhile, Andrew Cuomo, from a strictly practical standpoint, would do a great job as mayor. There will be some women who believe that his harassment (and no one ever accused him of rape) should be disqualifying. I have a very different view. But I’m just one person.

Who would you pick?

1. I have NY bagels overnighted to me from NYC on a regular basis.

2. All criminal charges were dropped, although Tish James’ investigation found that the allegations of 11 women were warranted.