...and so, we are at war...

On Sunday night, when the first phone alerts appeared, my mind was transported back to the first days after 9/11. At that time, part of my job was to help with military logistics work. I was on the first plane out of BWI to SLC after the airways reopened. We had to get to the airport 3 hours pre-flight. Our luggage was gone through with a fine tooth comb. There were only a few dozen of us on the plane. All headed for Hill AFB, no one able to say why they were going. Everyone looking at everyone else and wondering.

It took about a week after 9/11 for the authorization for war (AUMF)¹ to pass Congress, and less than a month for the attack on Afghanistan to begin (“Operation Enduring Freedom.”) So much discussion, and so few of us yelling “NO WAR — it’s a bad idea.”²

Operation Enduring Freedom was a terrible idea, and attacking Iraq the next year³ was an even worse idea, but we had been attacked. Article 5 was triggered. The UN thought it was okay after Colin Powell lied to them. (Background if you’ve forgotten here.)

This time, we were not attacked. Not in any danger. VonShitzenpants decided without even consulting Congress. The world will not stand with us, we are isolated and now in actual danger.

You don’t have to be Nostradamus to see the potential of what’s coming.

1. Iran’s ability to get their uranium stock (estimated at 60% enriched) to the 90% necessary for a weapon has increased. First, we didn’t actually touch any of their stocks, they’d moved them ahead of time. Second, both Russia and China can easily help get them to where they need to be. Not to mention that their nuclear scientists are well hidden.

2. If Iran mines the Straits of Hormuz, and tactically, it should, the price of oil will skyrocket. As if the Orange Menace hadn’t done enough to tank the world economy.

3. While Iran doesn’t have the firepower to viably attack multiple US interests, it has a lot of other options: sleeper agents and cells placed long ago who can undertake assassinations and potentially attacks on things like broadband, the electric grid, the water supply, etc. Not to mention hacking that can be accomplished from anywhere in the world.

Those are just the toplines.

We don’t actually understand the Iranian people. More precisely, most Americans don’t understand the Iranian people. Most people think of Iran as a Moslem country, ruled by a far-right extremist, and there’s truth there. But Iran, the country, and the people, existed well before the birth of Islam, and some Iranians still practice Zoroastrianism, one of the oldest religions in the world.

Why does this matter? you may ask.

If you read “Fire in the Lake” by Frances FitzGerald, you will understand why the Americans, the French before us, and the Chinese a thousand years before them, never stood a chance fighting in Vietnam because of the ingrained Vietnamese culture and values set. It’s a heavy lift at about 500 pages, but well worth the read so that you can understand why completely misreading a civilization can only lead to disaster. I still remember reading it when it was first published, and saying “AHA!” after virtually every page.

Sadly, there is no book that I know of which presents the Iranian history and culture in a similar vein. (If you know of one, please let me know.) But there is a critical parallel here.

The earliest settlements in Iran date back to about 4000 BC. While borders and rulers have changed, it is an old civilization that has withstood all sorts of changes, many different political and religious systems, and survives today.

In modern times, Iran thought that Germany would win WW2, and ended up falling to British and Russian armies in 1941. There was hope for a Constitutional Monarchy (think England) but it didn’t quite work out. In 1951, Iran nationalized the British oil industry. In 1953, MI-6, the CIA, and part of the Iranian army led a coup, which installed Shah Pahlavi into power. He was propped up by the CIA until 1979. During his tenure, there was “The White Revolution” - which helped to redistribute oil wealth to what had previously been “the peasantry”. There were opportunities and a lot of true improvements. For example, starting in the early 1960’s, women could vote. (That’s a HUGE DEAL in a predominantly Arab country.)⁴

After the 1979 Revolution, Iran went backwards to a repressive, reactionary country. A certain number of Iranians were able to get out, but most remained, and remembered a freer life.

Many Iranians hate their current government. But they love Iran, what it could be, and for some, what it was prior to 1979. To be able to impact any regime change means that the Americans (led by the Fox News crew) will need to align with the people who end up undertaking any coup on the ground.

It pays to avoid underestimating “the people”. Not just their will, and their outlooks, but their logistics. Old societies have things that we don’t see a lot of in a young country like the US: tunnels, alleys, building connections. It allows for communication between people who need to remain hidden.

I am rooting for the Iranian people. Not the regime, not the cultists, but “the people”.

And as for the US?

Our current regime is doing everything completely wrong. They are doing things that hurt each and every one of us. We need to keep taking to the streets. Yes, protests, but also blocking the thugs acting as ICE agents. We need to keep putting pressure on our elected reps. We need to hope against hope that the parliamentarian will disallow the inclusion of the 2017 tax cuts in the baseline, and the “big beautiful bill” goes down in flames, or is significantly altered. And as for this war? The sole upside is that if we end up boots on the ground, there won’t be enough military bodies to be both overseas and in our cities.

p.s. No, I’m not yet writing on a regular basis, but I felt compelled to make the time to write this.

1. The sole member of either chamber who voted against the Afghanistan AUMC was Barbara Lee.

2. For those of you who don’t know me personally, I’m a lifelong pacifist. Have never raised a hand in anger, spent most of my life as a vegetarian so nothing would die so that I could eat it, can not protect myself because I will not harm another.

3. There were 23 members of the House and Senate who voted against the Iraq AUMC, some are still in office. Source.

4. Feel free to check my work — I pulled this info from my college class notes from the course “When Men Revolt, and Why”.