Sunday with the Senators: Can we Hold?

Right now, the tally in the US Senate is 51 Democrats, including independents who caucus with us, vs. 49 Republicans. Remember that for the first two years of the Biden administration, it was 50-50 with Vice President Harris casting many deciding votes. We hit 51 when John Fetterman won the open Senate seat in 2022 after the retirement of Pat Toomey.

There are 33 seats up this year.

Most of them are not in question. To wit:

• Democratic seats – 19 up this cycle – we for sure hold 17.

• Independents – 4 seats up this cycle – we hold 2 for sure, lose one for sure, and likely hold the last.

• Republican seats – 10 seats up this cycle – they for sure hold 6.

In my model, which does NOT rely on any polling, I see us holding the Senate with 50 seats, and we could potentially pull in four more if we sweep. I doubt that, so I’m saying we hold at 50.

Let’s dig in.

Below is my overall map projection, and I’ll explain my logic below in detail. If you want to create your own map (IT’S FUN, KIDS!!!) click here.

Democratic Seats in Question

There are two: Montana and Ohio. While some people would consider Pennsylvania and Nevada to be iffy, there is nothing at this juncture that indicates to me that either Republican challenger has a chance.

In Montana, incumbent Senator Jon Tester is being challenged by Tim Sheehy. He’s a former Navy SEAL. After leaving the Navy Sheehy co-founded Bridger Aerospace, an aerial firefighting company, and Ascent Vision Technologies, an imaging system developer. He sold Ascent several years ago.

Senator Tester has won his races in the past because, while a Democrat (or more accurately “in spite of being a Democrat”) he is a true Montana. Born and raised. A farmer, and in fact he lost three fingers of his left hand in a farming accident as a child. He owns and operates (with his wife) a grain farm in Big Sandy, which went organic in 1980. He butchers his own meat, and brings it with him to DC when the Senate is in session. He is a moderate, has broken with the party on various issues over the years related to fracking and guns, but is in favor of abortion rights and most core Democratic values. He’s a Freemason.

Sheehy is a legitimate war hero: recipient of both a Bronze Star and a Purple Heart who separated from the service for medical reasons. We thank him for his service and sacrifice. Other than that, there are more questions than answers, and a ton of problems. He’s currently being sued for negligence after the plane he was flying crashed into a house in Florida, severely injuring the daughter, and destroying the house. There are questions both about where he was born and raised, and where he lives now. Scuttlebutt says he was born and raised in Minnesota (Twin Cities area), lived in a variety of places, and finally landed in Montana 10 years ago. He owns a lot of properties. But let’s talk Bridger. The company is currently being sued for fraud. It’s also losing money hand over fist. Not a good look for someone running as a successful businessman.

It will be a razor-thin race. But I think Tester will win by a nose. The more people find out about Sheehy, the more they consider him someone who doesn’t understand Montana, doesn’t understand their concerns, and plus I think this will be a really bad year for really rich candidates.

On to Ohio.

Incumbent Senator Sherrod Brown is being challenged by Bernie Moreno. I’m going to skip all the background and just list the reasons I think Senator Brown is going to win, and it won’t be a squeaker.

• Brown is the senior Senator from Ohio. JD Vance is the junior Senator. Think about it.

• Bernie was the choice in the Republican Senate primary of BOTH Convicted Felon Trump, and the Democratic Party.

• Bernie lied about why he came to the US as a child. Source.

• Bernie believes in an abortion ban with no exceptions. Source. Second source.

• Bernie settled a wage theft case out of court. Bernie was the thief.

• Years ago, his car dealership helped sponsor the 2014 Gay Games. His eldest son is gay. Once he entered politics, Bernie became vehemently anti-LBGTQIA+. Source.

• Bernie is opposed to raising the minimum wage. Source.

• Quote from Bernie:

"I am so sick of Republicans that will say 'I support President Trump's policies, but I don't like the man,'" Moreno said, drawing some reaction from the crowd. "This is a good man. This is a great American. This man wakes up every day fighting for us, fighting for this country. He loves this country like no other leader in this nation has ever loved this country."

Independent Seats

We lose West Virginia, and considering Joe Manchin’s voting record, it’s a meh EXCEPT it means we would have to pick up a Republican seat to get to 51. We are fine at 50 since then-Vice President Tim Walz will be the deciding vote.  I have no doubt that Reuben Gallego will defeat Kari Lake in Arizona. Bernie Sanders and Angus King both hold with huge margins.

Republican Seats

We have a slight, REALLY SLIGHT, chance of picking up any of Florida, Texas, Tennessee and Nebraska. If you note that there’s a red box in Nebraska on the map above, that’s for the special election, which the Republicans will hold. I’ve written previously in great detail about Florida and Texas, so let’s look at the other two.

Nebraska may well be the sleeper of the season. Conventional wisdom says that incumbent Deb Fischer will win easily. If you’re interested in her positions, think about what MAGA supports, and then add steroids. There is no Democratic candidate in this race.  There is an Independent, Dan Osborn, and there will be a candidate for the “Legalize Marijuana NOW” Party to be named by 3 September.

Originally, the Nebraska Democratic Party was going to support Osborn, who was a registered Democrat through 2016, until he said he would accept nothing from any party this cycle. He’s ex-military, and he successfully led the 2021 strike against Kellogg’s in Omaha. His positions are left-wing. A summary:

Osborn says his priorities are protecting small businesses, family farmers and workers. He supports raising the national minimum wage and a lower tax rate on overtime work; guaranteeing access to abortion; facilitating union organizing; protecting gun rights; securing U.S. borders and exploring ways to legalize some undocumented workers; legalizing and taxing marijuana; and improved railroad safety. He has said he supports a "libertarian approach" to hot-button issues and that government should be kept out of private lives. He believes in a "right to-repair" of consumer goods such as cars and electronics. Source.

If he were to be elected, despite being an independent, he would have to align with a party to get any committee positions, and it’s likely he’d join the side of truth and light. Some people like to run as independents, but don’t want to spend their entire Senate career without anything to do, and to accomplish things, one needs to be on committees.

So why do I think he has a chance? He has limited funds to speak of, and he’s not that well known outside of Omaha. But do you know who was born and raised in Valentine, NE? Tim Walz. And who campaigned in Nebraska yesterday? Yup, Tim Walz. As of this writing, I don’t know how that rally turned out, nor how many people attended, but if Nebraska is a worthwhile place for the Harris-Walz campaign to visit, it becomes a maybe. Now, objectively, all the Harris-Walz campaign wants is the single Omaha Electoral College vote, for which they will fight, but the spillover becomes a possibility, especially given Osborn’s position on abortion. Currently, abortion is legal in Nebraska to the 12th week.

Finally, I want to bring Tennessee to your attention. I know, I know, Tennessee hasn’t sent a Democratic Senator to DC since Jim Sasser, Harlan Mathews and Al Gore in the 90’s, and no Democrat has been elected since Phil Bredesen left the Governor’s Mansion in 2011. And this is really a long shot, but I’ve got a soft spot in my heart for Gloria Johnson, member of the “Tennessee Three.” She’s raised over $5 million (compared to Marsha Blackburn’s $13 million) and $5 million ain’t nothing. Could this be the year that Tennesseans say that their trigger law fundamentally outlawing abortion is bad? Could it be the year they say that they’re sick of all the school shootings? It's a really far bridge, but this might be the year a miracle happens.