State of the Race

A few random thoughts...

As is often the case, Pennsylvania is in the crosshairs: potentially the tipping point state, but mostly in the crosshairs of advertising – it’s completely unavoidable. From what I’ve heard, the outcome will be so close that it could be a matter of a few thousand votes, as opposed to the tens of thousands of votes in the last two presidential cycles.

Think about that: there are approximately 13 million people living in Pennsylvania. As of 30 September 2024, PA Department of State says there are 8,964,447 registered voters in the Commonwealth. In 2020, 70.93% voted. Source. It was the highest turnout percentage since at least 1960. It’s just about evenly split, if you believe the polls. While I do NOT generally believe polls, even a stopped clock is correct twice a day, and from everything I’ve been hearing from people doing the work across the state, it may well be this close. (I’m holding my thumb and index finger not too far apart.)

A lot of polls (most utilized by the aggregators) use something called “recall” in their polling. This means when they poll people, they ask how they voted in the most recent presidential election. They then adjust their numbers. And the problem is that a lot of people don’t remember that they didn’t vote. Pollsters often compare what people said to the historical record of who voted, and they find a lot of people “think” they voted but they didn’t. Remember – it’s public record of whether or not a person voted, but it is PRIVATE in terms of who they voted for. Voting is SECRET. (Don’t let MAGA-heads tell you otherwise.) In addition, people often “recall” that they voted for the winning candidate, even when they didn’t. Using recall in adjusting the polls means depending on seriously unreliable data.

The “recall” issue, which is used by some, but not all, pollsters, is also compounded by the concern of the voting universe used by pollsters. Will people who never voted before vote this time? If so, will they be brand new, young voters who are energized by Vice President Harris? Will they be middle aged people who want a return to the 1850’s? We have no way of knowing, and the pollsters have no way to figure it out.

Thus, the question of how tight the race will be is all about turnout. In Pennsylvania, the Harris campaign ground game is far better organized, staffed, and funded, than the other side. This may well make the difference here.

Side note: if a canvasser comes to your house, or calls you, please be polite and let them know you’ll be voting and for whom. Those data points are critical to the campaigns up and down the ballot. If you are undecided (and I truly doubt anyone who reads my stuff is undecided) let the canvasser know. We have people who will follow up and help you.

Ground game, however, will be less of a marker in some other states.

For example, the ground game in western North Carolina is fundamentally nonexistent, as are a lot of the towns there. It’s very sad, and I hope that they find the missing people, and continue the recovery. From an election perspective, there are more unknowns than knowns for this region.  We don’t know, for example, if requested mail in ballots have been received, nor if requests FOR mail in ballots made it. We don’t know where there will be polling places, nor whether people who are currently stranded will be able to get to them. From a strictly human perspective, the horror of Helene may cause people to concentrate on fundamentals, and decide to not vote this time.  I do not begrudge them. I’m a committed voter, and I don’t know that if my concerns were “Where are we getting food and water for the family today?” I’d prioritize voting. We have no idea what the impacts will be.

Added to the problems is that in North Carolina, for mail in ballots, voters need either two witnesses or one notary public to observe them while they mark their ballot, AND the voter needs to attach a copy of their valid ID. Not making this up. It’s the only state to require witnesses and an ID.

A similar situation exists in Florida. As I write this, Milton is still a day off. But it looks like a serious direct hit going across the I-4 corridor. We won’t know the full extent of the damage until at least Thursday, possibly Friday. The same problems plaguing North Carolina are impacting Florida due to Helene, and will be magnified by Milton.

Weather systems know no politics. They just destroy and kill.

So again, it’s all about turnout. In North Carolina and Florida, compounded by the ability to vote.

On the interesting side of things, there’s a chance we might pick up the governorship of Indiana. And a Nebraska Senate seat. Plus several House seats flying under the radar, including PA-10 and IA-1. On a hopeful note out of Texas, registered voters have hit a little over 18 million people, and most of those registrations are in blue areas. More info and maps here. Is it enough to change the presidential outcome? Unlikely, but it might get us another Senate seat.

Let’s all keep a kind thought for Florida today and tomorrow.