Initial Debate Thoughts

Yes, it was not President Biden’s best night. But I know one thing: if the bedwetting part of our party has its way and replaces him, there is a 100% chance Convicted Felon Trump becomes the next president.

The first question would be “who?”. Historically, that would be the Vice President, but the selection of Kamala Harris would not be guaranteed. If she were the selection, well, her approval numbers are not that different than President Biden’s. She would do better with black voters, and on the abortion question, but her foreign policy chops are lacking. In the aggregate, there is a contingent of voters who would either stay home or vote for someone else. If she is NOT the candidate, the blowback from black and female voters (and especially black females) would lead to an electoral disaster that would reverberate down the ballot.

The “waiting in the wings” Democrats who will likely run in 2028 include people like Gavin Newsom, Gretchen Whitmer and Pete Buttigieg. All of them have their pros and cons.

An ancillary point is the process that would be used to select a replacement. There would be a floor fight at the Convention, and a lot of voters would strongly dislike that the choice is being made NOT by voters, but by the Party. For those of us old enough to remember, it would be a return to the pre-1972 days of smoke-filled rooms.

It’s about 8 hours after the debate as I write this, and what matters most is how the Biden-Harris campaign acts in the next several days. First, there needs to be a ton of digital advertising and talking heads showing that Convicted Felon Trump lied about everything from Charlotteville to sleeping with a porn star to the outcome of the 2020 election. He didn’t say a true thing the entire night, and that may well resonate with voters.

Second, President Biden needs to be out campaigning, and needs to start EVERY speech saying that he understands that he had a bad night, and that there is not one person amoungst us who has not had “a bad night” at one time or another, and he’s glad that his cold has resolved, and he has his voice back.

Third, the campaign needs to take CNN to task for not doing fact checking for OBVIOUS things, such as the Charlottesville comment, and the continued ream of Speaker Emeritus Pelosi.

Finally, there need to be announcements of something. HHS is going to announce that more drugs will be cheaper for Medicare patients. Make a splash, and then announce more. Remember that people will likely tune out of politics for the long July 4th weekend, and then a few days later, Convicted Felon Trump will be sentenced. That will become the talking point for several cycles.

The bottom line is that while virtually all of us who watched the debate were (pick one: saddened, disappointed, apoplectic) about how the President did on the debate stage, it basically doesn’t matter. The campaign goes on, the candidate goes on. We need to acknowledge that and then find the best path forward.

Disagree with my assessment? Please leave a comment.