Can we win?

Not a day goes by where I am spared an onslaught of texts, calls, emails and messages asking whether we will win in November.

Honest, I’m not the Oracle of Delphi. Sorry. Wish I were.

But I do have some thoughts.

As you know, I’m not a believer in race polls. Ballot initiative polls, sure, but the polls about who will vote in which way aren’t worth my time in terms of predicting outcomes. It used to be much easier to make accurate predictions 6 weeks out, but the political world is upside down.

There are some very good markers for large Democratic wins, but there are also a few potential missteps that could cost us. Here are the positive markers:

Enthusiasm

There are multiple enthusiasm gaps between the campaigns. When people are waiting to get into Harris-Walz (or surrogate) rallies and events, campaign workers with clipboards sign up the people in line to work a shift.

When people are on line for the misogynistic, racist, autocratic rallies, they buy swag. If that side could successfully solicit volunteers, they would. OH WAIT. They’re not doing that. (See next section.)

Ground Game

There is nothing more important for a successful campaign than the ground game. Not money (albeit money pays for the ground game), not even the viability of the candidate. “Ground Game” is boots on the ground going door to door, making phone calls, sending post cards, talking to friends, family and neighbors.

The old school way to launch a campaign is to start with a big wall calendar and work backwards from Election Day. Each month has a starting point of goals for the month in terms of money raised, volunteers engaged, and voter contacts. At the end of each month, there are wrap-up numbers for each area. On the calendar go speaking engagements and other candidate appointments (like interviews). In modern times, this is relegated to technology, where data is broken down precinct by precinct, even for a national campaign.

Either way, the campaign manager(s) map out where the voters are, who has been contacted, who needs more “touches” (you need to touch every non-Super 5 times).

The Harris-Walz ground game is one of the best I’ve seen. It has vertical integration, and horizontal reach. It is buoyed by the enthusiasm of the volunteers. It includes not just the standard outreach practices, but also leverages outreach to colleges and universities, health care facilities (like voter registration at hospitals), and other non-traditional locations. It is well integrated with state and local Democratic Party organizations.

The side of darkness outsourced their ground game, in part to Elon Musk. They are concentrating exclusively on low- and mid-propensity voters, in a limited number of states. They MAY be able to count on Brian Kemp’s GOTV organization in Georgia, but that’s iffy. When Lara Trump took over the RNC, the first thing she did was to merge the RNC with the presidential campaign. That meant less support for state and local races, with the added problem of a lack of vertical coordination.

I’ve worked on GOTV for local elections, Congressional elections, and the Obama campaign in 2008 and 2012. We left no stone unturned in ANY of those campaigns. Rule #1: make sure to nail down your base early and then work out from there. For example, you may have a voter who is all in for voting a straight blue ticket, and has always voted in person, but finds out that a work trip has been scheduled. You need to ensure that the person knows how to get a mail-in ballot, and returns it on time. The Harris-Walz campaign is all over this, and the side of darkness isn’t.

Donations

A higher percentage of small donor donations (41.6% to 31.7%) have flowed to the Harris campaign. This is even more striking in raw numbers, where the Harris campaign has raised almost $300 million dollars to the Convicted Felon’s almost $100 million. Source.

You can talk all you want about polls, and focus groups, and enthusiasm gaps, but when someone gives money to a campaign, THEY VOTE!

Abortions

The Rethuglicans would have you believe that abortion isn’t an issue that matters to most people. Like anyone who cannot get pregnant because they are too young, too old, or male. But this is a huge issue. I’ll leave it with this:

Tariffs

The Convicted Felon has his minions believing that tariffs will solve all our financial problems, and even pay for childcare. You only think I’m making this up. The more Democrats up and down the ballot hone in on how tariffs are paid by consumers, and are not going to government coffers, the more likely that undecided voters will come around to what we REALLY need to do about the economy.

Here are the problems:

Many voters are idiots

On Tuesday night, Alex Wagner broadcast her conversation with union workers in Michigan. You can see part of the presentation here. It’s not possible to embed, sorry.

What struck me was how older workers were able to point out that the current jobs these union workers had were a direct result of the CHIPS Act passed by President Biden. Meanwhile, a lot of the younger workers, who never read a newspaper nor watch the news, believe that their jobs have been taken by hordes of people streaming over the southern border. It hasn’t struck them that there are NO undocumented migrants at their plants, NOR have any of them lost their jobs: they work every day.

Two young women who were interviewed, but aren’t on the recording, were asked about abortion. They lacked clarity on where the two candidates stood on the issue of abortion, only that the two sides should “meet in the middle.”

Believe it or not, this is ONLY overcome with ground game. Person-to-person conversations.

Vice President Harris isn’t giving enough interviews

There is certainly a risk here because she has, in the past, gone off script. All of the rallies and meet and greets are great, but she needs more interviews. Thankfully, last night she gave a 2-hour interview with Stephanie Ruhle. I hope she does more.

Here are the great unknowns:

Vice Presidential Debate on 1 October

This could be more of a game changer than one might suppose. I assume that everyone reading this blog has heard both Governor Walz and the misogynist speak in the past. So we all know that this will be an actual debate. Since it could be the last debate, probably more people will tune in than normally do for a vice presidential debate. And while debates don’t win elections, they certainly can lose them. I have my fingers crossed that the misogynist speaks as he does at rallies, including how post-menopausal women should help raise their grandkids, how even though it’s false that Haitians are eating pets, lies are okay to put the spotlight on immigrants, and how women should be forced to carry pregnancies to term, even if it kills them.

October Surprise

Count on it. The thing about October surprises is that they come out of left field. Will it be an evidence release from Jack Smith’s filing? Will it be the Convicted Felon going so far off the rails that even the MSM talks about it? Will it get around the MSM to the voters that he believes Russia should win against Ukraine? You never know.

And so…

I think so long as we keep working, wearing tee shirts so we can talk to people, giving money, we end up winning the White House.

And the rest…

Remember, it’s not enough to win the White House. We all remember 2014 – 2016 when President Obama stood alone against a Republican House and Senate, the sole stopper against all-out horror.

US Senate

We are as sure as we can be about winning 49 seats. We need a miracle in Montana. We actually have a slightly better chance in both Texas and one of the Nebraska seats, while Florida is a wild card.

US House

Overall, I have a good gut feeling that we will retake the House. That sentence may be enough for some people, and others will want me to break out the 67 races that will determine control. Sadly, I know about all of them. And my concentration on them is why my weeding and gardening are behind, and my kitchen is a mess.

I leave it to you.